COMEX: Daily Technical analysis Report

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at 1277.50/1278.50, which was also the intraday high, as investors turned cautious amidst last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and the ongoing financial crisis in emerging economies. The metal then dipped to a low of 1272.50/1273.50 while the dollar remained largely unchanged. Choppy trading for the remainder of the session led it to close at 1274.50/1275.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1274 and tried to break through resistance in the 1278/79 area. RSI is at 61.13, and is testing resistance at the previous high of 62. This is an encouraging sign, and a break would be bullish. Support is at the most recent low of 1238.

Gold edged higher on speculation that Fed would slow the pace of its stimulus tapering after a weak U.S. jobs report raised questions over the state of economic recovery.

China’s gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tonnes for the first time, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion.

The U.S. central bank has said it aims to finish the tapering by the end of this year depending on the health of the labour market.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1267	1256	1284	1291

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved higher overnight to open at the session high of 20.27/20.32. It retreated to a low of 20.07/20.12 prior to concluding the session at 20.10/20.15.

Silver closed unchanged today at 20.10. Despite breaking up through a daily downtrend last week, silver is still lacking in momentum. RSI has moved higher to 54.90, but needs to break through resistance at 57.28, the January high. Price resistance is at the top of the range at 20.64, with support at the low of 18.83.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 63.55. After a big drop last week, it has found some support in the high 62’s. There is strong support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 61.70. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37. 

Silver gained as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly Fed will roll back its stimulus program following the release of mixed U.S. employment data.

Mixed U.S. employment report forced investors to recalibrate their assumptions about the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.95	19.64	20.43	20.58

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

The March copper contract ended Friday’s session up 0.22% to settle at USD3.236 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.191 a pound, the low from February 6 and resistance at USD3.258 a pound, the high from January 30.

On Thursday, China will release its monthly trade data, which will be followed by inflation numbers Friday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., data on Friday showed that the economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000, after December's lackluster gain of 75,000 jobs.

It was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring.

Yet the report also showed that the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63% from a 30-year low of 62.8% last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to a five year low 6.6% from 6.7% in December.

Market players now looked ahead to Congressional testimony from new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later in the week for clues regarding the future of course of U.S. monetary policy.

Copper futures were little changed near a one-week high on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of China later in the week to gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.2083	3.1921	3.3468	3.2691

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD99.89 a barrel and a high of USD100.07 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD100.06 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD97.14 a barrel, Friday's low, and resistance at USD100.75 a barrel, the high from Dec. 27.

Oil prices rose on sentiments that recent blasts of cold air have hiked demand for heating fuel and other distillates, though forecasts for moderating temperatures in the coming weeks capped gains.

Also capping gains were reports of an end to supply snags in the North Sea, while increased exports from Libya to the global market also watered down gains.

Armed protestors have occupied oil facilities in Libya up until recently, and exports from the Middle Eastern nation are normalizing.

Markets were also eager to listen to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress on Tuesday, hoping the nation's new top economist will shed insight on the direction of the U.S. central bank's USD65 billion in monthly bond purchases.

Nymex crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses on Tuesday during Asian trading hours on fears that recent blasts of winter storms have taken their toll on heating oil stockpiles more

than anticipated, though reports of increased supply from Libya capped the commodity's gains. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	99.26	98.46	100.70	101.34

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
11.01.14	8.30P.M	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies			STRONG
11.01.14	8.30P.M	JOLTS Job Openings	4.00M	4.04M	STRONG

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

FF Alert	Text of the speech due to be released 90 minutes earlier than the speaking time listed;
Description	Due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Next Release	Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes	The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first she reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not4 known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility;
Why Traders Care	As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Reserve (Fed);

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);

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Gold, Silver,Copper, Crude: Comex Technical Report

SILVER

Silver advanced overnight to open at 19.25/19.30. It touched a low of 19.21/19.26 before climbing to a high of 19.62/19.67 and prior to concluding the session at 19.39/19.44. Free Trial

Silver closed higher today at 19.39. There is a base of support in the high 18’s/low 19’s, where we have traded on seven occasions since the beginning of December. There is also a strong downtrend in place on the daily chart, which currently comes in at 20.04. Silver has traded in a sideways range since early December, so we would need a breach of support at 18.83 or of resistance at 20.64 to get excited about the metal. 

The gold-silver ratio is trading close to unchanged at 64.94. It remains in a well-defined uptrend with support currently at 61.50. Resistance is at the major high of 67.56.

Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest level since June.

Caution over emerging markets, U.S. economy and Fed’s move to taper its stimulus program remain crucial to the metal’s moves

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.66% i.e. 65.84 tonnes to 10095.06 tonnes from 10029.22 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.10	18.81	19.66	19.92

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1247.00/1248.00. It touched a low of 1245.25/1246.25 before surging to a high of 1265.50/1266.50 as the dollar retreated while equity markets slipped following weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM data that showed a decline in manufacturing activity, which included a significant drop in new manufacturing orders, amidst continuing pressure on emerging markets. The metal then consolidated later in the afternoon to close the day at 1259.50/1260.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1260. Price action has been very lackluster, and the past two trading sessions have traded inside of Thursday’s big down-day. A nice clean break through the recent high of 1279, which is also a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% of the August to December 2013 downtrend), would improve the outlook considerably and would shift our view out of neutral. We note the MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.

Gold rose as prices were supported after a worse than expected U.S. manufacturing report weighed on the dollar and global equities.

ISM said its index of national factory activity fell to its lowest level since May 2013 at 51.3 last month, from a recently revised 56.5 in December.

U.S. manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
GOLD	1245	1230	1270	1281

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.184 a pound, the weakest since December 4, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.194 during European morning hours, down 0.1%.

The March copper contract settled down 0.91% on Friday to end at USD3.197 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.168 a pound, the low from December 2 and resistance at USD3.230 a pound, the high from January 31.

Copper prices have declined in each of the past eight sessions leading up to Monday, the longest losing streak since January 1996.

Data released earlier showed that China's official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level since December 2008 in January, falling to 53.4 from 54.6 in December.

The deterioration in the services sector adds to declining manufacturing PMIs. Data released over the weekend showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December.

Last week, private sector data from HSBC confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for the first time since July.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.1715	3.1595	3.1990	3.2145

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.54 a barrel and a high of USD96.73 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD96.65 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, the low from Jan. 27, and resistance at USD98.58 a barrel, Thursday's high.

Oil prices suffered after the Institute for Supply Management said its widely-watch manufacturing gauge fell to a seven-month low in January, as new orders slumped.

The ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.3 in January, down from 57.0 in December.

Analysts were expecting the index to inch down to 56.4 in January.

The report added new order growth fell at its fastest rate in 33 years, with the new orders index dropping to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. The employment index fell from 55.8 in December to 52.3, the weakest since June.

New York-traded crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses in Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing gauges missed market expectations and painted a picture of a still-weak U.S. economy that will demand less fuel and energy going forward than once anticipated..

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	95.81	95.20	97.50	95.56

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	Factory Orders m/m	1.8%	-1.9%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	45.2	46	LOW

Factory Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 6, 2014
FF Notes	This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 4, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;

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Singapore SGX: Technical View Of STI

Market Review:
Singapore shares continue the down trend and traded below 3000 mark and closed well below this level.

Market forecast:

• STI opened with gap down @ and crossed its major support level and took support multiple support zone of 2989-2985 mark and closed near to day low with loss of 1.20%.
• STI crossed its 3000 mark and traded below this level whole day and closed @ 2990 mark just near to day low, for this bearish move STI made a candlestick pattern called long black line; this is a single and highly bearish candle.
• As STI crossed its 3020 mark so we expect more down side movement in STI and it can touch 2950-2920.

 

STRAITS TIME LEVELS		STI Day Performance
Support 1	2970	Open	3011.41
Support 2	2950	High	3015.16
Support 3	2930	Low	2989.00
Resistance 1	3015	Close	2990.95
Resistance 2	3035	Change(Points)	-36.27
Resistance 3	3055	% Change	-1.20
		Volume	1488.1M
		Rise	126
		Fall	245
		Unch	415

Support:
STI having immediate support @ 2970 level and below this level it can take support @2950-2930 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3015 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3035-3055.

Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning.

Important Factor for today:
China’s official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 53.4 in January from December's 54.6, putting further strains on the market, as pressures from the massive sell-off in emerging markets show little sign of abating.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
DBS	16.54	0.42	JSH 500US$	31.32	-3.63
ComfortDelGro	1.94	0.26	Genting SP	1.34	-2.9
Capitaland	2.76	0	HKLand US$	5.86	-2.66
Noble Grp	0.95	0	CapMallsAsia	1.715	-2.56
Wilmar	3.11	-0.32	JMH 400US$	52.35	-2.3

Important factor to watch this week 3rd to 7th Feb 2014:
S'pore Jan PMI
S'pore Jan foreign reserves
US Jan employment situation
 Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 4th Feb 2014

Company Name	Type	Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	28 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.0093 TAX EXEMPT
CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	28 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.0463 LESS TAX
FRASER AND NEAVE, LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.12 ONE-TIER TAX
FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.0173 ONE-TIER TAX
STI ETF	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	20 Feb 2014	SGD 0.043 ONE-TIER TAX
TRIYARDS HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX

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Technical Analysis on Singapore STI: Weekly Report

Weekly wrap of STI:

Singapore shares ended lower for January 2014 tracking falls in the wider region after manufacturing data from China disappointed and the U.S. Federal Reserve made another cut to bond buying. (Trading Tips)

Week starts with huge gap @ 3038.99 and then it made week High @ 3068.05 and then it fell badly again and took support on week low of 3012.26 and finally closed 3021.98 with loss of 54.81 points down by 1.76% wow basis.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3038.99
HIGH	3068.05
LOW	3012.26
CLOSE	3021.98
CHANGE (In Points)	-54.81
% CHANGE	-1.76%

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore December M1 Money Supply Rises Marginally to S$154.60 Bln.

• Singapore inflation eased at averaged 2.4 % for the whole of 2013, "sharply lower" than the 4.6 % in 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a joint statement on Thursday.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI faced free fall in this week, fell below its 200 week MA level of 3021.69 and looking more week.
• STI formed candlestick pattern called Falling Window as opened with huge gape, so made a window between previous week low and this week high level and this difference called Falling window. This pattern is bearish pattern and can move more down side.
• For the coming week we can expect some more downward if STI will continue to sustain below 3015 and next level for bearish move will be 61.8% retracement i.e. 2975 level.
• Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be announce on 5^th Feb 2014.

S 1	S 2	S 3	R 1	R 2	R 3
3015	2975	2950	3050	3075	3095

STI Resistance:

• STI having Resistance @ 3050 and above this level it may take resistance from 3075-3095 levels. (free trading Signals)

STI Support:

• STI having nearest support @ 3015 below this 2975-2950 will be the support area for market. (Trading Tips)

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are moving down.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 3^rd Feb 2014

Company Name	Type		Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
SIA Engg	3rd Quarter Results
GDS GLOBAL LIMITED	DIVIDEND	03 Feb 2014		05 Feb 2014	24 Feb 2014	SGD 0.007 ONE-TIER TAX
MERMAID MARITIME PUBLIC CO LTD	DIVIDEND	03 Feb 2014		05 Feb 2014	21 Feb 2014	USD 0.0086 LESS TAX

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Weekly Technical View on Singapore Stright Time Index

Weekly wrap of STI:
Singapore shares tracked losses and heading for their biggest weekly loss in more than 3-1/2 months, Index slipped after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data raised concerns over the economy.
 
Week starts with flat node and initially traded in very narrow and same range below 50 day MA level, and mid of the week STI crossed its support level and badly fell 3100 mark. STI was opened @ 3137.26 and then it made a high of 3142.05 , and faced resistance at that level and fell down , took support at 3071.28 and finally closed at 3075.99 with loss of 71.34 points down by 2.27% wow basis.

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore inflation eased at averaged 2.4 % for the whole of 2013, "sharply lower" than the 4.6 per cent in 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a joint statement.
• Singapore 4Q Private-Home Prices Fall 0.9% on Qtr Vs +0.4% in 3Q.
• Singapore's manufacturing sector expanded by a surprising 6.2%in December compared to a year ago, as a 22.2% jump in electronics output helped to offset a 14.9 % contraction in the biomedical manufacturing cluster. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, industrial production would have grown an even stronger 12.1% year-on-year.
• Singapore's private home prices fall first time since Q1 2012, down 0.9% in Q4

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3060	3030	3010	3115	3135	3150

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3137.26
HIGH	3142.05
LOW	3071.28
CLOSE	3075.99
CHANGE (In Points)	-71.34
% CHANGE	-2.27%

Weekly Technical view on STI

Market Forecast for week ahead: 

STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3140-45 mark this week, index didn’t even crossed its 50 week MA and fell badly below 3115 mark and crossed 3100.

STI formed long black candle which is highly bearish candlestick pattern. This is a single and strong candle which denotes more bearishness. It visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.

For the coming week we can expect some more downward if STI will continue to sustain below 3100 and next level for bearish move will be 3050-3015.

STI Resistance: 

STI having Resistance @ 3115 and above this level it may take resistance from 3135-3150 levels.

STI Support:

STI having nearest support @ 3060 below this 3030-3010 will be the support area for market.

Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are moving down.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 27^th January 2014

Company Name	Type		Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	27 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.00269 TAX EXEMPT
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	27 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.02814
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	27 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.00615 LESS TAX
CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	25 Feb 2014	011013 - 311213 SGD 0.0003
CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	25 Feb 2014	011013 - 311213 SGD 0.02107 LESS TAX
FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	28 Feb 2014	011013 - 311213 SGD 0.025 LESS TAX
JAYA HOLDINGS LTD	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	12 Feb 2014	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	06 Mar 2014	1OCT-31DEC, DRP SGD 0.0014
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	06 Mar 2014	1OCT-31DEC, DRP SGD 0.0237 LESS TAX
OSIM	Full Year Results
Chosen	Half Year Results
China Essen	3rd Quarter Results
Chew's Gp	AGM
Keong Hong	AGM
F & N	AGM & EGM
China Fish	AGM & EGM
Marco Polo	AGM & EGM
Pac Andes	SGM & AGM

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Weekly Technical Analysis For FOREX

The US dollar had an fine week, winning against currencies across the board, with the Aussie and the loonie suffering the biggest losses.  German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Rate decision in Japan and the UK as well as US Unemployment Claims and housing data are the main events on our calendar. Let's have an approach on the main market-movers for this week.

The US manufacturing sector registered strong performance with a remarkable rise in Empire Manufacturing. Together with a rise in retail sales and solid inflation numbers, the US dollar left the disappointing NFP behind and enjoyed gains. The pound managed to give a fight to the dollar thanks to superb retail sales, but the rest were on the defensive. The Canadian dollar reached a new four year low against the greenback, and the Aussie collapsed to new 3 year lows after a terrible jobs report. Even the “Teflon” euro eventually depreciated. Volatility continues to provide opportunities.

UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of jobless claims in the UK fell by 36,700 in November to 1.27 million, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in October, to its lowest rate since 2009. Prime Minister David Cameron remarked that the plan is working, but there is still much work to be done. The workforce should be larger in order to provide solid economic recovery. A further decline of 32,300 jobless claims is forecasted while unemployment is expected to decline to 7.3%.

Source	Office for National Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 19, 2014
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	ILO Unemployment Rate, Jobless Rate;

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, pushing the four week average by 13,500 to 335,000. The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits is expected to decline since a special federal program expired last month and is starting to affect recipients. Nevertheless, the number of new claims stabilized near pre-recession levels, indicating a solid recovery in the US economy. Jobless claims are expected to increase to 331,000.

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. U.S. home sales declined sharply in November to an annual rate of 4.90 million units, the lowest level in nearly a year, due to an increase in interest rates. This drop suggests the housing market is losing its growth momentum. The Fed tapering worsened the situation further as well as the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s plan to reduce the maximum size of mortgages which can be bought by taxpayer which is expected to have its toll on the housing sector. A rise to 4.99 million units is expected now.

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 21, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;

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Singapore SGX: STI Technical Analysis

Weekly wrap of STI:

STI were struggling to cross its previous week high but can’t able to cross that level and traded in a same range however closed down from opening.

Week starts with higher opening @ 3150.74 levels and then it fell down and made week low at 3115.80 below 3120 support level. After taking support on lower levels it recovers and made high of 3155.89 and then closed at 3147.33 with gain of 3.51 points up by 0.11% wow basis.

Macroeconomic factors:

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) beat expectations to grow 6 % year-on-year in December, turning around from a revised 8.9 % fall in November to stage its strongest rise in more than a year.

Month-on-month, the NODX also rose a seasonally-adjusted 9.2 % in December, reversing November's 4.2% contraction. This too, beat the median forecast of 2.8%.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3155 level this week, didn’t crossed this high. Faced selling pressure at higher levels and crossed support level.

• STI formed candlestick pattern called Tweezers top, where 2 consecutive candles shares a same level of High and cant able to cross this high. Here in STI faced resistance @ 3153-3155 mark from last 2 weeks and cant able to sustain above this. The Tweezers Top reversal pattern is extremely helpful because it visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.
• For the coming week we can expect some more upward move if it will maintain above 3155 levels than it could touch 3190-3220 mark and on the other side if STI crossed its 3120 mark then we will see more downside movement.

STI Resistance:

• STI having Resistance @ 3155 and above this level it may take resistance from 3175-3190 levels.

STI Support:

• STI having nearest support @ 3120 below this 2995-2965 will be the support area for market.

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are recovering.

S1	S2	S3	R 1	R 2	R 3
3020	2995	2965	3155	3175	3190

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3150.74
HIGH	3155.89
LOW	3115.80
CLOSE	3147.33
CHANGE (In Points)	+3.51
% CHANGE	+0.11%

Weekly Technical view on STI

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