COMEX Report of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold spiked overnight as investors awaited news on possible sanctions against Russia after Crimea voted to leave the Ukraine. The move however was short lived and the metal quickly retreated to open virtually unchanged at 1377.50/1378.50. Sideways trade throughout the day until selling interest emerged as the dollar started to recovered, taking the metal to a low of 1369.25/1370.25 prior to concluding the session at 1372.00/1373.00.

Gold had a bearish day today, making a new intraday high but then closing lower at 1372; a potential reversal warning. RSI is showing bearish divergence, having failed to make a new high on the new price high. While the longer-term uptrend still looks healthy, gold may face a test of the uptrend support which currently comes in at 1339. There should also be support from the top of the previous range, at 1355. Resistance is at the intraday high in the 1383 area.

Gold prices fell as a sharp rally in U.S. equities triggered profit-taking after bullion briefly rose in last some sessions.

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished in view of increasing political tensions and economic troubles, which benefit gold.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.81 tonnes i.e. 0.47% to 812.78 tonnes from 816.59 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved higher and later retreated alongside gold overnight to open at 21.23/21.28. It quickly touched a low of 21.20/21.25 before proceeding to an intraday high of 21.40/21.45. The metal concluded the session at 21.24/21.29.

Silver closed lower today at 21.24. The metal has struggled to break out of its sideways range. Support is at the recent low of 20.61, with resistance at Friday’s high of 21.79. We remain neutral. 

Silver dropped tracking weak gold prices after Crimea voted to join Russia and leave Ukraine on Sunday with no widespread violence

Fed will most likely to announce another $10 billion cut to its bond-buying stimulus after solid U.S. retail sales and employment data

Investors remained cautious after Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex Crimea.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.922 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.946 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.15%, or $0.004 cents.The May copper contract rose 0.94%, or 0.275 cents to settle at $2.950 a pound on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $2.912 a pound, the low from March 14 and resistance at $2.977 a pound, the high from March 13.

Results showed that nearly 97% of voters in Crimea chose to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.

Russia's lower house of parliament has stated that it will pass legislation allowing Crimea to join the nation in the "very near future."

U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington rejected the results of the referendum and warned that the U.S. was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.

Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it does not back down on annexing Crimea.

Copper has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as growing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery was flat to trade at $1,378.90 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery shed 0.15% to trade at $21.38 an ounce.

Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.

Copper prices edged lower on Monday, as concerns escalated over Ukraine after results of Sunday's referendum showed voters in Crimea voting to join Russia..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in May traded at $97.56 a barrel, down 0.07%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.01 a barrel and a high of $98.91 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.97, or 1.8%, to $106.24 a barrel on Monday, its lowest settlement price since Feb. 4.

Investors continued to monitor events in Europe, after over 90% of Crimean voters on Sunday chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea's Parliament on Monday formally asked to join the Russian Federation.

Sanctions followed as expected.

European Union foreign ministers imposed travel bans and asset freezes on 21 people they have linked to the push to have Crimea secede from Ukraine to be annexed by Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama also imposed sanctions on several Russian officials involved in the incursion of Crimea, which included freezing assets in the U.S.

Still, markets were expecting more widespread action from the West, and the response enticed investors away from oil by allaying fears the conflict could escalate and threaten energy supply from Russia.

Investors took hit-or-miss U.S. economic indicators in stride.

Data revealed earlier that U.S. industrial production rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Industrial production in January was revised to a 0.2% fall from a previously estimated 0.3% decline.

Crude price were slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday as relatively tame sanctions from the West on Russia, the world's top oil producer, over the annexation of the Crimean region of the Ukraine allayed concerns of any abrupt cutoff in supplies.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1368	1358	1388	1398
SILVER	21.13	20.89	21.64	21.91
COPPER	2.9865	2.9600	3.0300	3.0470
CRUDE	98.20	97.50	99.42	100.64

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Building Permits	0.94M	0.97M	STRONG
6.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Housing Starts	0.88M	0.92M	MEDIUM
6.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-45.9B	23.4B	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau(latest release)

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 15, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Housing Starts

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

Read More

Daily COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1346.00/1347.00 following mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It dipped briefly to a low of 1344.25/1345.25 before surging to a four-month high of 1354.25/1355.25 as oil and safe-haven currencies reported gains while global equities retreated in face of the impending crisis in Ukraine. The metal closed the day at 1350.00/1351.00.

Gold had a very strong close today, ending the session at 1351 and clearly trading through resistance in the 1337 area. This opens up a full retracement to the 1433 high from August 2013. Resistance is at the most recent high of 1361 from October 2013. There is support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 1310.
Gold gained as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia bolstered demand for assets perceived to be relatively safe, hitting riskier investments such as equities.
A recent series of weak U.S. data that showed how much a cold snap has hurt activity in US, coupled with signs of a growth slowdown in China, boosted gold prices
A U.S. Non farm payrolls report on Friday should give investors a further opportunity to gauge the country’s growth.
SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at 21.43/21.48. It dropped to a low of 21.39/21.44 before following gold to a high of 21.63/21.68 and then coming under selling pressure to close near opening levels at 21.48/21.53.
Silver had a small move higher today at 21.48, but is still in consolidation mode. The price action since the big up-move on February 14th has been disappointing. Support is at the 200-daymoving average of 20.98, followed by the top of the previous range, 20.64. Resistance is at the recent high of 22.17.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 63.07. It has will be key. Confirmation of today’s down move would open up the moved back into its previous uptrend after a false break lower in February. Uptrend support comes in at 63.07. We are neutral.
Silver rallied tracking gold prices as the chance of military conflict in Ukraine mounted following Russia’s seizing of control of the Crimean peninsula.
The Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.35% i.e. 35.89 tonnes to 10168.47 tonnes from 10204.36 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $3.160 a pound, the weakest since November 21.
Copper prices last traded at $3.169 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.6%. The May copper contract lost 0.42% on Friday to settle at $3.187 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.146 a pound, the low from November 21 and resistance at $3.212 a pound, the high from February 28.
Geopolitical tensions mounted over the weekend after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Sunday that his country was “on the brink of disaster” after Russia’s parliament authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force in Ukraine.
Ukraine has put its forces on combat readiness and U.S. President Barack Obama warned Russia not to intervene. The U.S. is also considering imposing sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
Meanwhile, lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment.
Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since November on Monday, as tension in the Ukraine flared over the weekend and amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at 104.82 a barrel, down 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of $103.36 a barrel and a high of $105.22 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $2.13, or 2%, to $111.20 a barrel.

Russia, the world’s biggest oil producer, sent troops into Crimea, a peninsula in Ukraine. The move stoked fears that there could be a disruption in supply in both crude and refined oil products.
Also supporting crude, the Commerce Department on Monday reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Personal spending for December was revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.4%.
The report added that personal income rose 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a flat reading in December.
Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which is stripped of food and energy items, inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in December.
The core PCE price index rose at an annualized rate of 1.2%, above forecasts for a 1.1% increase, after rising at a rate of 1.1% in December.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1335	1321	1360	1369
SILVER	21.28	21.12	21.64	21.84
COPPER	3.2030	3.1855	3.2425	3.2665
CRUDE	103.50	102.09	105.77	106.63

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	44.9	45.6	LOW

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 2, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;
Acro Expand	Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);

Read More

COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

 Gold remained relatively unchanged overnight, opening at the intraday high of 1332.75/1333.75. It declined steadily as a string of mostly positive U.S. economic data showed a rise in pending home sales and consumer spending. The S&P hit a record high as the metal continued its decline to close at the day’s low of 1320.50/1321.50. After the close, the metal moved higher following news that Russia landed troops at a military air base in Ukraine.
Gold closed slightly lower this week at 

1321, after three successive weeks higher. The weekly chart looks bullish, having formed a bottom at 1182 in December, and reaching an intra week high in the 1345 area. Support is at 1301-1308, which forms a Fibonacci convergence zone. The Fibonacci levels represent the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend and the 50% retracement of the September to December downtrend (at 1308). Resistance is at 1361, the high from November 2013. RSI is confirming the trend higher, and the last signal in MACD in the weekly chart was a buy. Lastly, the Positive Directional Movement Index (DMI) line crossed bullishly through the Negative DMI line.

 Gold settled flat as U.S. equities climbed, but yellow metal still posted monthly gain as persistent concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy boosted prices.

 Data showed the U.S. government slashed its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth in the latest sign of a loss of momentum

 Gold gained in February mostly due to signs of economic weakness in China and the United States as well as political and economic turmoil in Ukraine.

 SILVER

 Silver opened at the session high of 21.36/21.41, remaining mostly unchanged overnight. It followed gold’s decline to close at the session low of 21.20/21.25.

 Silver closed lower at 21.20, after three up weeks. There is a downtrend off the April 2011 high, which currently comes in at 22.33. RSI also failed just above resistance in the 53 area, currently at 50.78. We will need to see a break up through 22.33 to attract more buyers. Support is at the lows of the recent consolidation in the 18.80 level.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 62.53, after making a false break lower through its trend line last week. The new, re-drawn uptrend currently comes in at 61.37. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.24.

Silver settled down after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the bank will continue tapering its monthly bond purchases

Prices seen pressure with investors opting for the riskier equity assets after a couple of encouraging economic data from the U.S. with consumer sentiment rising

Report showed the U.S. economy to have grown much less than initially indicated in the fourth quarter of 2013.

 COPPER

Copper settled down -0.55% as lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment. Investors were pondering improvement in the consumer confidence index and government officials’ remarks on the Ukraine crisis.

The US Commerce Department announced Friday that the 4Q GDP growth for the country was revised to 2.4% QoQ, lower than estimate and Q3’s growth. The figure raised speculations that the Fed may possibly suspend QE taper. In the euro zone, inflation remained stable, cooling expectation for monetary easing by the European Central Bank.

 In this context, the US dollar index fell to 79.772, help LME copper prices pare declines and finish at USD 7,012.3/mt, down USD 18.5/mt. In the US, GDP growth for Q4 2013 was revised down to 2.4%, missing the 2.5% forecast.

 In other vital news, political crisis in Ukraine continued to upgrade. Russia’s parliament has approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for Russian forces to be used in Ukraine “until the normalisation of the political situation in the country”.

 US President Barack Obama warned Russia that it should rethink its military intervention in Ukraine, and US government officials said Obama is considering not attending June’s G8 Summit in Sochi, Russia, and reassessing economic relations between US and Russia. In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for an indication of the strength of the recovery in the labor market and the future course of monetary policy.

 CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at 103.77, up 1.15%, on the risk of military conflict in the Ukraine and possibility of continued cold weather in the United States.

Last week, crude futures for April settled up 0.19%, or $0.19 cents, to end the week at $102.59 a barrel.

Oil’s gains came as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro on Friday after data showed that the annual rate of consumer inflation in the euro zone rose by a more-than-expected 0.8% in February, dampening speculation the European Central Bank will add to stimulus at its upcoming policy meeting.

 Meanwhile, forecasts for freezing temperatures across most parts of the central and northeast U.S. over the next couple of weeks boosted prices as well.

 Gains last week however were limited after the Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.

 The disappointing data added to concerns that the economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

 Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.

 Crude oil prices gained in Asian trade on Monday as tension between Russia and the West over the Ukraine lifted risk assets broadly.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1316	1318	1345	1354
SILVER	21.03	20.76	21.54	21.69
COPPER	3.2253	3.2121	3.2528	3.2670
CRUDE	101.94	101.29	103.10	104.26

Global Economic Data

	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
7.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.2%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	ISM Manufacturing PMI	51.3	52.3	STRONG

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales, which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier;
Why Traders Care	Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy;
Also Called	Consumer Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures;

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 1, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand	The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

Read More

COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at the session low of 1292.00/1293.00. 

The metal climbed after weaker-than-expected U.S. data showed disappointing consumer retail spending and lackluster growth in jobs. The metal touched a high of 1300.50/1301.50 before concluding the session at 1300.00/1301.00.

 Gold traded higher today, closing at 1301 and continuing its uptrend off the December 31st low. We are bullish gold so long as it holds support at the 1278 area. The next resistance is 1308, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. RSI is confirming the move, making a new high dating back to August 2013. RSI is currently at 69.45, in bullish territory, and a sign that the uptrend has finally gained momentum.

Gold gained following the release of unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales figures for January and separate report showing that initial jobless claims rose last week.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase.

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.94% to 806.35 tonnes from 798.85 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.20/20.25, which was also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.40/20.45 prior to concluding the session at 20.39/20.44.

Silver had a strong move higher today, closing at 20.44. The metal has moved from 19.01 to 20.44 in the past two weeks. RSI has finally broken through resistance and is currently at 62.32. These signs are encouraging; however, as we have had false breaks before in this long sideways consolidation, we will wait for a positive weekly close through 20.64 resistance to shift out of neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at current 63.50, testing support at the same level, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend (in July-August 2013). There is strong support from the daily uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.82. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37.

Silver gained as support seen from a sharply lower dollar and weaker equity markets.

Recent U.S. economic data, including two straight months of weak jobs growth, have raised questions over whether the world’s biggest economy can sustain growth

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between USD3.239 a pound and USD3.256 a pound.

Copper prices last traded at USD3.240 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.5%.

The March copper contract rallied to USD3.263 a pound on Wednesday, the most since January 29, before trimming gains to settle at USD3.256 a pound, up 1.28%.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.202 a pound, the low from February 11 and resistance at USD3.263 a pound, the high from February 12.

Investors were looking ahead to U.S. retail sales data due later in the day, amid concerns that sales slumped in January after a 0.2% rise in December.

Recent weak jobs reports have raised concerns over whether the U.S. recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

Market players were also awaiting the release of inflation data out of China due on Friday to further gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper futures pulled back from a more than one-week high on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the world’s two-largest economies..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at USD100.17 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.18%.

The March contract settled down 0.02% on Thursday to end at USD100.35 a barrel.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.11 a barrel, the low from February 10 and resistance at USD101.38 a barrel, the high from February 12.

Oil prices remained under pressure after the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase. Retail sales for December were revised down to a 0.1% decline from a previously reported increase of 0.2%.

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Core sales in December were revised down to a gain of 0.3% from a previously reported increase of 0.7%.

Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.

A separate report showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose unexpectedly, underlining concerns over the strength of the labor market.

Crude oil futures edged lower during early European trading hours on Friday, as investors awaited the release of U.S. data later in the trading session, after disappointing economic reports on Thursday disappointed.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1290	12681	1313	1322
SILVER	20.17	19.95	20.74	20.96
COPPER	3.2273	3.2046	3.2643	3.2786
CRUDE	99.61	98.87	100.87	101.39

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME:IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
14.01.14	7.00P.M	Import Prices m/m	0.0%	-0.1%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	7.45P.M	Industrial Production m/m	0.3%	0.2%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	8.25P.M	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	80.4	80.6	STRONG

Import Prices m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 13, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called	Import Price Index;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Industrial Production m/m

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called	Factory Output;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

Read More

COMEX: Daily Technical analysis Report

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at 1277.50/1278.50, which was also the intraday high, as investors turned cautious amidst last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and the ongoing financial crisis in emerging economies. The metal then dipped to a low of 1272.50/1273.50 while the dollar remained largely unchanged. Choppy trading for the remainder of the session led it to close at 1274.50/1275.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1274 and tried to break through resistance in the 1278/79 area. RSI is at 61.13, and is testing resistance at the previous high of 62. This is an encouraging sign, and a break would be bullish. Support is at the most recent low of 1238.

Gold edged higher on speculation that Fed would slow the pace of its stimulus tapering after a weak U.S. jobs report raised questions over the state of economic recovery.

China’s gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tonnes for the first time, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion.

The U.S. central bank has said it aims to finish the tapering by the end of this year depending on the health of the labour market.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1267	1256	1284	1291

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved higher overnight to open at the session high of 20.27/20.32. It retreated to a low of 20.07/20.12 prior to concluding the session at 20.10/20.15.

Silver closed unchanged today at 20.10. Despite breaking up through a daily downtrend last week, silver is still lacking in momentum. RSI has moved higher to 54.90, but needs to break through resistance at 57.28, the January high. Price resistance is at the top of the range at 20.64, with support at the low of 18.83.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 63.55. After a big drop last week, it has found some support in the high 62’s. There is strong support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 61.70. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37. 

Silver gained as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly Fed will roll back its stimulus program following the release of mixed U.S. employment data.

Mixed U.S. employment report forced investors to recalibrate their assumptions about the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.95	19.64	20.43	20.58

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

The March copper contract ended Friday’s session up 0.22% to settle at USD3.236 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.191 a pound, the low from February 6 and resistance at USD3.258 a pound, the high from January 30.

On Thursday, China will release its monthly trade data, which will be followed by inflation numbers Friday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., data on Friday showed that the economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000, after December's lackluster gain of 75,000 jobs.

It was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring.

Yet the report also showed that the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63% from a 30-year low of 62.8% last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to a five year low 6.6% from 6.7% in December.

Market players now looked ahead to Congressional testimony from new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later in the week for clues regarding the future of course of U.S. monetary policy.

Copper futures were little changed near a one-week high on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of China later in the week to gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.2083	3.1921	3.3468	3.2691

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD99.89 a barrel and a high of USD100.07 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD100.06 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD97.14 a barrel, Friday's low, and resistance at USD100.75 a barrel, the high from Dec. 27.

Oil prices rose on sentiments that recent blasts of cold air have hiked demand for heating fuel and other distillates, though forecasts for moderating temperatures in the coming weeks capped gains.

Also capping gains were reports of an end to supply snags in the North Sea, while increased exports from Libya to the global market also watered down gains.

Armed protestors have occupied oil facilities in Libya up until recently, and exports from the Middle Eastern nation are normalizing.

Markets were also eager to listen to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress on Tuesday, hoping the nation's new top economist will shed insight on the direction of the U.S. central bank's USD65 billion in monthly bond purchases.

Nymex crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses on Tuesday during Asian trading hours on fears that recent blasts of winter storms have taken their toll on heating oil stockpiles more

than anticipated, though reports of increased supply from Libya capped the commodity's gains. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	99.26	98.46	100.70	101.34

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
11.01.14	8.30P.M	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies			STRONG
11.01.14	8.30P.M	JOLTS Job Openings	4.00M	4.04M	STRONG

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

FF Alert	Text of the speech due to be released 90 minutes earlier than the speaking time listed;
Description	Due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Next Release	Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes	The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first she reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not4 known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility;
Why Traders Care	As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Reserve (Fed);

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);

Read More