GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged slightly higher overnight to open at 1313.50/1314.50, which was also the intraday high. Following the open it dipped to a low of 1300.25/1301.25 as the dollar strengthened and equities gained momentum following better-than-expected U.S. economic data that showed an increase in sales of durable goods. The slide in gold prices was also attributed to easing of tensions between Russia and the West, which suppressed demand for safe haven assets. The metal closed the day at 1302.50/1303.50.

Gold traded lower today, closing at 1302 and coming dangerously close to the 200-day moving average at 1296. A close below that level would be our stop-loss on our long-term bullish gold view. Resistance is at 1316/17, the high of the past two sessions.

Gold fell as encouraging U.S. manufacturing data reduced bullion’s appeal to institutional investors as a hedge against economic uncertainty

U.S. Federal Janet Yellen suggested interest rates could rise in the first half of 2015, raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.80 tonnes i.e. 0.22% to 816.97 tonnes from 818.77 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver was mostly unchanged overnight, opening at 19.97/20.02. It briefly climbed to a high of 20.01/20.06 before retreating on the back of gold to a low of 19.73/19.78, prior to concluding the session below the $20 mark at 19.76/19.81.

Silver had a bearish close today, closing lower at 19.76. We are bearish silver, looking for a test of the base of the consolidation that has been in place since early December, around the 18.83 low.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 65.90. There is support at 65.02, the 76.4% retracement of the last downtrend in the ratio from 67.47 high to 57.09 low. Uptrend support comes in at 62.99. We are bullish the ratio, targeting a test of the double top in the 67.50 area.

Silver prices dropped after official data showed that U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods came in higher-than-forecast in February.

Prices has been under heavy selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% last month, snapping two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.982 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.985 during European morning hours, down 0.68%, or 2.0 cents.

Copper rallied to $3.045 a pound on Tuesday, the most since March 11, before settling at $3.005 a pound, up 2.04%, or 6.0 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders later in the session.

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved more than expected in March. However, a separate report said that new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating continued weakness in the housing sector.

Copper rallied on Tuesday amid growing hopes that China will unveil fresh stimulus measures to boost slowing economic growth.

Data released on Monday showed that Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated for a third successive month in March.

The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

Copper prices fell from the previous session’s two-week high on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $100.32 a barrel, up 0.05%, after hitting an overnight session low of $99.11 a barrel and a high of $100.13 a barrel.

Prices for the global Brent oil futures contract rose four cents to settle at $107.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices firmed after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% in February, wiping out two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1.0% increase.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, inched up 0.2%, slightly below forecasts for a 0.3% gain.

The numbers fueled expectations for a more sustained pickup in the U.S. economy, which should hike demand for more fuel and energy.

Weekly inventory data gave oil prices a boost as well.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21, above expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.

The EIA also reported a 1.3 million barrel draw at a delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, which was larger expected and eclipsed the otherwise bearish 6.6 million-barrel build.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 382.5 million barrels as of last week.

Crude oil prices edged slightly higher in Asia on Thursday from a morning drop that followed overnight gains on better-than-expected reports on U.S. durable goods and oil inventories.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1296	1288	1314	1324
SILVER	19.67	19.59	20.08	20.16
COPPER	2.9930	2.9755	3.0380	3.0830
CRUDE	99.42	98.58	100.78	101.30

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	320k	326k	STRONG
6.00P.M	FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks	—	—	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Final GDP q/q	2.4%	2.7%	MEDIUM
7.30P.M	Pending Home Sales m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Apr 3, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Final GDP q/q

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Preliminary release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health;

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 28, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

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COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold climbed higher overnight to open at 1338.00/1339.00. It moved up marginally to a high of 1339.25/1340.25 as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. The metal then declined to a low of 1333.00/1334.00 as global equities rebounded with the S&P setting a new intra-day high. It traded within range for most of the day to close at 1335.00/1336.00.

Gold had a bearish outside week, closing lower at 1335 and completely retracing last week’s gains. This is a potential reversal warning. The support level to watch is 1312, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 uptrend. We have been bullish, but would revisit our view should 1312 be broken to the downside. Resistance is at the weekly high of 1392. Gold recovered its losses to settle flat as the dollar edged lower, though the market posted weekly drop following the Fed’s latest meet. An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold. SPDR gold trust holding gained by 4.19 tonnes i.e. 0.52% to 816.97 tonnes from 812.78 tonnes.

 SILVER

Silver was relatively unchanged overnight, opening at 20.41/20.46. It rose to a high of 20.45/20.50 before following gold lower to close at the session low of 20.28/20.33.

Silver had a bearish week, closing at 20.28. The metal continues to trade under the downtrend that has been in place since April 2011. Support is at the base of the consolidation that has been in place since June 2013, at the 18.20 level. We are neutral while silver continues to trade within this consolidation range. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 65.79. It is well supported from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.89. Resistance is at the double top in the 67.47 to 67.56 area. Silver remained under pressure as the dollar firmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015. The central bank said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by an additional $10 billion to a total of $55 billion a month. The Fed also updated its forward guidance, discarding the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering when to increase borrowing costs.

 COPPER

On the week, Comex copper prices ended down 0.02%, as ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

  Attention now shifts to the release of HSBC’s March China Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,965 contracts as of last week, up 24.5% from net shorts of 10,473 in the preceding week. Copper settled flat due to the weak outlook toward Chinese growth and lack of key market movers China’s copper market will see a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2014 through a rise in copper production as imports surpass growth. A stronger RMB which eased concerns over China’s copper demand was also behind the higher copper prices.

 CRUDE

The HSBC data for March showed a drop to 48.1, compared to a forecast of 48.7 expected and to a final of 48.5 for the previous month. A figure below 50 implies contraction with the the latest number part of a string of disappointing China data suggesting a deepening economic slowdown at the start of 2014. “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China’s growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly based with domestic demand softening further,” said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

“We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower.” On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $99.20 a barrel Crude Oil, down 0.26%. Crude oil settled 0.57% higher, or 56 cents, at $99.46 a barrel, last week on speculation over the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and amid indications the U.S. economy is improving. Investors continued to monitor events in the Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have underpinned prices. The political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia. Crude oil prices stayed weaker in Asia on Monday after the China HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index for March unexpectedly fell, placing demand doubts in the market about the world’s second largest crude oil importer. 

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1320	1313	1343	1350
SILVER	20.14	20.00	20.42	20.64
COPPER	2.9696	2.9186	3.0206	3.0473
CRUDE	98.39	97.32	100.39	101.32

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.15P.M	Flash Manufacturing PMI	57.1	56.6	MEDIUM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source	Markit(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar – early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Flash release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);

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COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

 Gold remained relatively unchanged overnight, opening at the intraday high of 1332.75/1333.75. It declined steadily as a string of mostly positive U.S. economic data showed a rise in pending home sales and consumer spending. The S&P hit a record high as the metal continued its decline to close at the day’s low of 1320.50/1321.50. After the close, the metal moved higher following news that Russia landed troops at a military air base in Ukraine.
Gold closed slightly lower this week at 

1321, after three successive weeks higher. The weekly chart looks bullish, having formed a bottom at 1182 in December, and reaching an intra week high in the 1345 area. Support is at 1301-1308, which forms a Fibonacci convergence zone. The Fibonacci levels represent the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend and the 50% retracement of the September to December downtrend (at 1308). Resistance is at 1361, the high from November 2013. RSI is confirming the trend higher, and the last signal in MACD in the weekly chart was a buy. Lastly, the Positive Directional Movement Index (DMI) line crossed bullishly through the Negative DMI line.

 Gold settled flat as U.S. equities climbed, but yellow metal still posted monthly gain as persistent concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy boosted prices.

 Data showed the U.S. government slashed its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth in the latest sign of a loss of momentum

 Gold gained in February mostly due to signs of economic weakness in China and the United States as well as political and economic turmoil in Ukraine.

 SILVER

 Silver opened at the session high of 21.36/21.41, remaining mostly unchanged overnight. It followed gold’s decline to close at the session low of 21.20/21.25.

 Silver closed lower at 21.20, after three up weeks. There is a downtrend off the April 2011 high, which currently comes in at 22.33. RSI also failed just above resistance in the 53 area, currently at 50.78. We will need to see a break up through 22.33 to attract more buyers. Support is at the lows of the recent consolidation in the 18.80 level.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 62.53, after making a false break lower through its trend line last week. The new, re-drawn uptrend currently comes in at 61.37. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.24.

Silver settled down after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the bank will continue tapering its monthly bond purchases

Prices seen pressure with investors opting for the riskier equity assets after a couple of encouraging economic data from the U.S. with consumer sentiment rising

Report showed the U.S. economy to have grown much less than initially indicated in the fourth quarter of 2013.

 COPPER

Copper settled down -0.55% as lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment. Investors were pondering improvement in the consumer confidence index and government officials’ remarks on the Ukraine crisis.

The US Commerce Department announced Friday that the 4Q GDP growth for the country was revised to 2.4% QoQ, lower than estimate and Q3’s growth. The figure raised speculations that the Fed may possibly suspend QE taper. In the euro zone, inflation remained stable, cooling expectation for monetary easing by the European Central Bank.

 In this context, the US dollar index fell to 79.772, help LME copper prices pare declines and finish at USD 7,012.3/mt, down USD 18.5/mt. In the US, GDP growth for Q4 2013 was revised down to 2.4%, missing the 2.5% forecast.

 In other vital news, political crisis in Ukraine continued to upgrade. Russia’s parliament has approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for Russian forces to be used in Ukraine “until the normalisation of the political situation in the country”.

 US President Barack Obama warned Russia that it should rethink its military intervention in Ukraine, and US government officials said Obama is considering not attending June’s G8 Summit in Sochi, Russia, and reassessing economic relations between US and Russia. In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for an indication of the strength of the recovery in the labor market and the future course of monetary policy.

 CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at 103.77, up 1.15%, on the risk of military conflict in the Ukraine and possibility of continued cold weather in the United States.

Last week, crude futures for April settled up 0.19%, or $0.19 cents, to end the week at $102.59 a barrel.

Oil’s gains came as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro on Friday after data showed that the annual rate of consumer inflation in the euro zone rose by a more-than-expected 0.8% in February, dampening speculation the European Central Bank will add to stimulus at its upcoming policy meeting.

 Meanwhile, forecasts for freezing temperatures across most parts of the central and northeast U.S. over the next couple of weeks boosted prices as well.

 Gains last week however were limited after the Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.

 The disappointing data added to concerns that the economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

 Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.

 Crude oil prices gained in Asian trade on Monday as tension between Russia and the West over the Ukraine lifted risk assets broadly.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1316	1318	1345	1354
SILVER	21.03	20.76	21.54	21.69
COPPER	3.2253	3.2121	3.2528	3.2670
CRUDE	101.94	101.29	103.10	104.26

Global Economic Data

	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
7.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.2%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	ISM Manufacturing PMI	51.3	52.3	STRONG

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales, which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier;
Why Traders Care	Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy;
Also Called	Consumer Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures;

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 1, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand	The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

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COMEX Technical Analysis Overview

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1335.50/1336.50. It fell briefly to a low of 1333.50/1334.50 as U.S. equities opened at an all-time high after China’s Yuan depreciated to its lowest level in over three years. The metal then advanced to a high of 1343.00/1344.00 after disappointing U.S. data pointed to low consumer confidence that raised concerns about economic recovery; this coupled with worries about China’s economic slowdown and political crisis in emerging markets. It closed the day at 1342.00/1343.00.  Gold closed higher today at 1343, taking out another Fibonacci resistance level at 1337. As was also noted yesterday, there is some small RSI divergence, however RSI is still moving higher at the current 73.52 level. We would want to see it take out the previous high of 75.57. In price, there are previous highs in the 1362 and 1375 areas, but we see the risk as a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. Only a move back below 1308 would change this view. Gold gained after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and a lackluster gain in home prices fueled concerns over the pace of U.S. economic recovery. U.S. home price gains slowed in December, according to a closely watched housing survey that underscored a loss of momentum in the housing recovery Gold holdings at Turkey’s central bank fell by a hefty 31.171 tonnes in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed.
SILVER

Silver retreated overnight to open at 21.82/21.87. It dropped to a low of 21.73/21.78 before recovering to post a high of 22.00/22.05. It concluded the session at 21.96/22.01. Silver closed unchanged today at 21.96. The metal has been trading sideways for the past seven sessions. It has been unable to close above resistance in the 21.97 area, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. We remain bullish so long as the metal holds the 38.2% retracement level at 21.23. The next target is 22.71, the 61.8% retracement level. 

The gold-silver ratio is higher today at current 61.12, but has traded sideways for the past week. Having broken the uptrend last week, we still see the risk as a full retracement to the 57.09 low. Silver prices ended with losses as pressure seen tracking weakness in crude oil and base metals prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI showed U.S. home price gains slowed in December, underscoring a loss of momentum in the housing recovery A spate of soft economic data from the United States and China since the start of the year has drawn investors back to bullion.  
COPPER

A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded in a range between $3.215 a pound and $3.253 a pound. Coppe prices last traded at $3.218 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.65%. The May copper contract fell to $3.204 a pound on Monday, the lowest since February 11, before trimming losses to settle at $3.240 a pound, down 0.61%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.204 a pound, the low from February 24 and resistance at $3.259 a pound, the high from February 24. Data released Monday showed that average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 9.6% in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month’s 9.9% increase. It was the first slowdown in the rate of price increases since November 2012. Meanwhile, market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. is to release a closely-watched report on consumer confidence, as well as private sector data on house price inflation. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. Copper futures declined on Tuesday to re-approach the previous session’s two-week low, amid ongoing concerns that attempts by policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property sector and rein in lending will reduce demand for the industrial metal.  
CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.05 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.05%. On Tuesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $101.95 a barrel and a high of $102.09 a barrel and settled at $101.99 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 14, and resistance at $103.45 a barrel, Monday’s high. Oil prices slid after the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index slipped to 78.1 in February from 79.4 in January, mainly due to concerns over general business conditions, jobs, and earnings. Analysts were expecting the index to tick up to 80.0. The present situation index rose to its highest level in almost six years, but the expectations index declined, indicating that while consumers believe the economy has improved they do not foresee further considerable improvement in the coming months. Giving oil some support were expectations the Federal Reserve will very gradually taper its $65 billion monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the dollar by suppressing long-term borrowing costs to spur recovery. Nymex crude oil prices were mixed between small gains and losses during Asian trade on Wednesday after a sustained decline overnight as the markets anticipated that a sluggish U.S. economy will demand less fuel and energy, while warmer weather forecasts too pushed prices lower.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1336	1329	1347	1357
SILVER	21.74	21.53	22.10	22.45
COPPER	3.2335	3.2085	3.2845	3.3105
CRUDE	100.95	100.07	102.77	103.77

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	New Home Sales	414K	406K	STRONG
9.00P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	1.0M	1.1M	MEDIUM

New Home Sales

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	New Residential Sales;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 5, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;

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COMEX Technical Analysis Outlook

SILVER
Silver advanced overnight – crossing the 200-day MA of $21 – to open at 21.07/21.12. It briefly touched a low of 21.05/21.10 before following gold to a high of 21.42/21.47. It concluded the session at 21.40/21.45.
Silver also closed higher this week, breaking through a downtrend that had been in place since August 2013 and closing at 21.45. RSI is now testing
resistance around the 52 level. These are encouraging signs that silver has formed a bottom. The next resistance is at the previous high of 23.09. Support is at the low of the recent range, at 18.83.
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower this week, currently at 61.50, and is testing support from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.03. We remain bullish the ratio as long as the uptrend holds. Resistance is at the recent high of 67.56.
Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria’s government.
An early end to stimulus could hurt precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes
GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight, going past the 200-day MA of $1304, to open at 1317.00/1318.00. After retreating to a low of 1313.50/1314.50 early in the session the metal climbed to a high of 1321.00/1322.00 as the dollar depreciated in value following weak U.S. economic data showing a decline in industrial and manufacturing output. Range trading throughout the afternoon prior to concluding the session at 1318.50/1319.50.
Gold had a bullish breakout week, closing at 1319 and breaking through two major resistance levels in the 1301 to 1308 area. Both were 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Momentum has turned higher, with RSI close to 54. We are bullish gold, targeting a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. In the meantime, gold faces resistance at 1361 then at 1433, the last two major highs. Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s forces within days SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery rose to a session high of USD3.306 a pound, the most since January 23.
Copper prices last traded at USD3.282 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.55%. The March copper contract ended Friday’s session 0.45% higher to settle at USD3.264 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at USD3.244 a pound, the low from February 14 and resistance at USD3.338 a pound, the high from January 23.
Trade volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, with Comex floor trading remaining closed for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. All electronic trades placed will register on Tuesday, when the market resumes normal trading hours.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, rose to a record-high of CNY2.58 trillion in January.
The report also showed that bank lending rose to a four-year high of CNY1.32 trillion last month, easing concerns over tightening liquidity levels.
Copper futures rose to a three-week high on Monday, amid speculation demand from top consumer China will increase after data pointed to an improvement in Chinese credit growth.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at USD100.54 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.40%.
On Monday the April contract traded in a range between USD100.52 a barrel and USD100.74 a barrel and ended the session at USD100.13 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.45 a barrel, the low from February 14 and resistance at USD101.38 a barrel, the high from February 12.
Trade volumes remain lighted on Monday, with Nymex floor trading remaining closed for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. All electronic trades placed will register on Tuesday, when the market resumes normal trading hours.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, rose to a record-high of CNY2.58 trillion in January.
The report also showed that bank lending rose to a four-year high of CNY1.32 trillion last month, easing concerns over tightening liquidity levels.
China is the world’s second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.
Nymex crude oil futures rose during Asian trading hours on Tuesday amid speculation that demand from China will increase after data pointed to an improvement in Chinese credit growth.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1306	1294	1325	1332
SILVER	20.74	20.07	21.79	22.16
COPPER	3.2493	3.2341	3.2748	3.2851
CRUDE	99.66	98.62	100.70	101.10

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Empire State Manufacturing Index	12.5	9.9	MEDIUM
7.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-29.3B	28.9B	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	NAHB Housing Market Index	56	56	MEDIUM

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of New York (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via	Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;
Also Called	New York Manufacturing Index;

TIC Long-Term Purchases

Source	Department of the Treasury (latest release)
Measures	Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
FF Notes	This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment – for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;
Why Traders Care	Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities;

NAHB Housing Market Index

Source	NAHB (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a negative outlook;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales;
Acro Expand	National Association of Home Builders (NAHB);

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