EUR/USD: Neutral: Odds for a move above 1.0870/75 are not high.
The 1.0825/30 level that we have talked about since Thursday was finally met with an overnight high of 1.0825. Shorter-term upward momentum is slowing down and while a move above 1.0825/30 would not be surprising, the odds for a break above last December high of 1.0870/75 are not high. Support is at 1.0745 but only a move back below 1.0715 would indicate that a short-term top is in place.
GBP/USD: Bullish: To take half-profit at 1.2545/50.
GBP hit an overnight high of 1.2507 before closing on a strong note. The bullish phase that started on Monday is still intact. However, from a shorter-term perspective, the rally appears to be running ‘too fast, too soon’ and those who are long should look to book half-profit at 1.2545/50, just below the 1.2570 high seen in late February. Stop-loss is unchanged at 1.2340.
AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7600/0.7730 range.
There is not much to add as we continue to view the current movement as part of a 0.7600/0.7730 consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the low end of the expected 0.7600/0.7730 range. Looking further ahead, as long as there is no sustained drop below 0.7600, we expect the current consolidation to be resolved to the upside.
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6950/0.7090 range.
As highlighted yesterday, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.7090 earlier this week. The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase that could last for several days. Overall, expect sideway trading from here, likely between 0.6950 and 0.7090.
USD/JPY: Neutral: No signs of stabilization just yet.
While we expected USD to extend its decline towards 111.05/10, the pace of the drop and the ease of which this level is taken out came as a surprise (overnight low of 110.71). Despite being severely oversold, there is no sign of stabilization just yet and further weakness towards the psychology level of 110.00 is not ruled out. Overall, this pair is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above stay above 112.50.
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