Singapore & Malaysia Stock market Analysis for 22nd April

Market Review for STI:
Today STI opened at 3260.78 and made a high of 3264.21 later pressure was seen in the market and it made a low of 3250.91 while closed at 3255.83. There was the volume of 1706.5Million.

STI Day Performance
Open	3260.78
High	3264.21
Low	3250.91
Close	3255.83
Change(Points)	2.03
% Change	0.06%
Volume	1706.5M
Rise	176
Fall	217
Unch	679

Market forecast for STI:
A Red candle was formed for the day a Spinning Top candle was formed with a short real body and short upper and lower shadow. As published in our weekly report; that STI would take some corrections, today it formed a red candle for the day and is expected to be in same correction mode for few trading sessions.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @72.09 is about to move in overbought level. Where CCI is @ 130.87.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3245
Support 2	3230
Support 3	3215
Resistance 1	3265
Resistance 2	3280
Resistance 3	3295

Important Factor for today:-

• CapitaMall Asia made a jump of 2.8% to S$75.3 million in Net Profit for 1Q 2014.
• RH Perto Gas Investments proposed sale of 49% Stake in RHP for US $ 2.79Million
• Shares in Catalist listed SHC Capital Asia surged on Monday that it is discussing a sale of its core insurance business.
• Trading in Chemoil will be suspended from 5 May 2014 as Friday 2nd May will be the last trading for Chemoil. 

Market Review for KLCI:

Today KLCI opened at 1851.61 and took the up move, made a high of 1864.94 and gave closing near to its high at 1862.93 while at the time of opening KLCI opened down with a lower side of 1849.68.

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1851.61
High	1864.94
Low	1849.68
Close	1862.93
Change(Points)	10.24
% Change	0.55%
Volume	2608.9M
Rise	523
Fall	326
Unch	1299

Market forecast for KLCI:
A long green candle was formed for the day with a long real body and short upper and lower shadow. As KLCI has recovered from down side and now is in a complete uptrend and looks forward to break its resistance of 1872 in the coming trading days.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @62.42 else CCI is @111.71

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1852
Support 2	1840
Support 3	1825
Resistance 1	1872
Resistance 2	1885
Resistance 3	1899

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COMEX Technical Analysis Overview

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1335.50/1336.50. It fell briefly to a low of 1333.50/1334.50 as U.S. equities opened at an all-time high after China’s Yuan depreciated to its lowest level in over three years. The metal then advanced to a high of 1343.00/1344.00 after disappointing U.S. data pointed to low consumer confidence that raised concerns about economic recovery; this coupled with worries about China’s economic slowdown and political crisis in emerging markets. It closed the day at 1342.00/1343.00.  Gold closed higher today at 1343, taking out another Fibonacci resistance level at 1337. As was also noted yesterday, there is some small RSI divergence, however RSI is still moving higher at the current 73.52 level. We would want to see it take out the previous high of 75.57. In price, there are previous highs in the 1362 and 1375 areas, but we see the risk as a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. Only a move back below 1308 would change this view. Gold gained after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and a lackluster gain in home prices fueled concerns over the pace of U.S. economic recovery. U.S. home price gains slowed in December, according to a closely watched housing survey that underscored a loss of momentum in the housing recovery Gold holdings at Turkey’s central bank fell by a hefty 31.171 tonnes in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed.
SILVER

Silver retreated overnight to open at 21.82/21.87. It dropped to a low of 21.73/21.78 before recovering to post a high of 22.00/22.05. It concluded the session at 21.96/22.01. Silver closed unchanged today at 21.96. The metal has been trading sideways for the past seven sessions. It has been unable to close above resistance in the 21.97 area, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. We remain bullish so long as the metal holds the 38.2% retracement level at 21.23. The next target is 22.71, the 61.8% retracement level. 

The gold-silver ratio is higher today at current 61.12, but has traded sideways for the past week. Having broken the uptrend last week, we still see the risk as a full retracement to the 57.09 low. Silver prices ended with losses as pressure seen tracking weakness in crude oil and base metals prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI showed U.S. home price gains slowed in December, underscoring a loss of momentum in the housing recovery A spate of soft economic data from the United States and China since the start of the year has drawn investors back to bullion.  
COPPER

A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded in a range between $3.215 a pound and $3.253 a pound. Coppe prices last traded at $3.218 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.65%. The May copper contract fell to $3.204 a pound on Monday, the lowest since February 11, before trimming losses to settle at $3.240 a pound, down 0.61%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.204 a pound, the low from February 24 and resistance at $3.259 a pound, the high from February 24. Data released Monday showed that average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 9.6% in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month’s 9.9% increase. It was the first slowdown in the rate of price increases since November 2012. Meanwhile, market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. is to release a closely-watched report on consumer confidence, as well as private sector data on house price inflation. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. Copper futures declined on Tuesday to re-approach the previous session’s two-week low, amid ongoing concerns that attempts by policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property sector and rein in lending will reduce demand for the industrial metal.  
CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.05 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.05%. On Tuesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $101.95 a barrel and a high of $102.09 a barrel and settled at $101.99 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 14, and resistance at $103.45 a barrel, Monday’s high. Oil prices slid after the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index slipped to 78.1 in February from 79.4 in January, mainly due to concerns over general business conditions, jobs, and earnings. Analysts were expecting the index to tick up to 80.0. The present situation index rose to its highest level in almost six years, but the expectations index declined, indicating that while consumers believe the economy has improved they do not foresee further considerable improvement in the coming months. Giving oil some support were expectations the Federal Reserve will very gradually taper its $65 billion monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the dollar by suppressing long-term borrowing costs to spur recovery. Nymex crude oil prices were mixed between small gains and losses during Asian trade on Wednesday after a sustained decline overnight as the markets anticipated that a sluggish U.S. economy will demand less fuel and energy, while warmer weather forecasts too pushed prices lower.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1336	1329	1347	1357
SILVER	21.74	21.53	22.10	22.45
COPPER	3.2335	3.2085	3.2845	3.3105
CRUDE	100.95	100.07	102.77	103.77

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	New Home Sales	414K	406K	STRONG
9.00P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	1.0M	1.1M	MEDIUM

New Home Sales

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	New Residential Sales;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 5, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;

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COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at the session low of 1292.00/1293.00. 

The metal climbed after weaker-than-expected U.S. data showed disappointing consumer retail spending and lackluster growth in jobs. The metal touched a high of 1300.50/1301.50 before concluding the session at 1300.00/1301.00.

 Gold traded higher today, closing at 1301 and continuing its uptrend off the December 31st low. We are bullish gold so long as it holds support at the 1278 area. The next resistance is 1308, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. RSI is confirming the move, making a new high dating back to August 2013. RSI is currently at 69.45, in bullish territory, and a sign that the uptrend has finally gained momentum.

Gold gained following the release of unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales figures for January and separate report showing that initial jobless claims rose last week.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase.

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.94% to 806.35 tonnes from 798.85 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.20/20.25, which was also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.40/20.45 prior to concluding the session at 20.39/20.44.

Silver had a strong move higher today, closing at 20.44. The metal has moved from 19.01 to 20.44 in the past two weeks. RSI has finally broken through resistance and is currently at 62.32. These signs are encouraging; however, as we have had false breaks before in this long sideways consolidation, we will wait for a positive weekly close through 20.64 resistance to shift out of neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at current 63.50, testing support at the same level, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend (in July-August 2013). There is strong support from the daily uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.82. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37.

Silver gained as support seen from a sharply lower dollar and weaker equity markets.

Recent U.S. economic data, including two straight months of weak jobs growth, have raised questions over whether the world’s biggest economy can sustain growth

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between USD3.239 a pound and USD3.256 a pound.

Copper prices last traded at USD3.240 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.5%.

The March copper contract rallied to USD3.263 a pound on Wednesday, the most since January 29, before trimming gains to settle at USD3.256 a pound, up 1.28%.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.202 a pound, the low from February 11 and resistance at USD3.263 a pound, the high from February 12.

Investors were looking ahead to U.S. retail sales data due later in the day, amid concerns that sales slumped in January after a 0.2% rise in December.

Recent weak jobs reports have raised concerns over whether the U.S. recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

Market players were also awaiting the release of inflation data out of China due on Friday to further gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper futures pulled back from a more than one-week high on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the world’s two-largest economies..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at USD100.17 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.18%.

The March contract settled down 0.02% on Thursday to end at USD100.35 a barrel.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.11 a barrel, the low from February 10 and resistance at USD101.38 a barrel, the high from February 12.

Oil prices remained under pressure after the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase. Retail sales for December were revised down to a 0.1% decline from a previously reported increase of 0.2%.

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Core sales in December were revised down to a gain of 0.3% from a previously reported increase of 0.7%.

Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.

A separate report showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose unexpectedly, underlining concerns over the strength of the labor market.

Crude oil futures edged lower during early European trading hours on Friday, as investors awaited the release of U.S. data later in the trading session, after disappointing economic reports on Thursday disappointed.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1290	12681	1313	1322
SILVER	20.17	19.95	20.74	20.96
COPPER	3.2273	3.2046	3.2643	3.2786
CRUDE	99.61	98.87	100.87	101.39

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME:IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
14.01.14	7.00P.M	Import Prices m/m	0.0%	-0.1%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	7.45P.M	Industrial Production m/m	0.3%	0.2%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	8.25P.M	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	80.4	80.6	STRONG

Import Prices m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 13, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called	Import Price Index;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Industrial Production m/m

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called	Factory Output;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

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Singapore SGX: Technical View Of STI

Market Review:
Singapore shares continue the down trend and traded below 3000 mark and closed well below this level.

Market forecast:

• STI opened with gap down @ and crossed its major support level and took support multiple support zone of 2989-2985 mark and closed near to day low with loss of 1.20%.
• STI crossed its 3000 mark and traded below this level whole day and closed @ 2990 mark just near to day low, for this bearish move STI made a candlestick pattern called long black line; this is a single and highly bearish candle.
• As STI crossed its 3020 mark so we expect more down side movement in STI and it can touch 2950-2920.

 

STRAITS TIME LEVELS		STI Day Performance
Support 1	2970	Open	3011.41
Support 2	2950	High	3015.16
Support 3	2930	Low	2989.00
Resistance 1	3015	Close	2990.95
Resistance 2	3035	Change(Points)	-36.27
Resistance 3	3055	% Change	-1.20
		Volume	1488.1M
		Rise	126
		Fall	245
		Unch	415

Support:
STI having immediate support @ 2970 level and below this level it can take support @2950-2930 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3015 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3035-3055.

Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning.

Important Factor for today:
China’s official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 53.4 in January from December's 54.6, putting further strains on the market, as pressures from the massive sell-off in emerging markets show little sign of abating.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
DBS	16.54	0.42	JSH 500US$	31.32	-3.63
ComfortDelGro	1.94	0.26	Genting SP	1.34	-2.9
Capitaland	2.76	0	HKLand US$	5.86	-2.66
Noble Grp	0.95	0	CapMallsAsia	1.715	-2.56
Wilmar	3.11	-0.32	JMH 400US$	52.35	-2.3

Important factor to watch this week 3rd to 7th Feb 2014:
S'pore Jan PMI
S'pore Jan foreign reserves
US Jan employment situation
 Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 4th Feb 2014

Company Name	Type	Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	28 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.0093 TAX EXEMPT
CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	28 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.0463 LESS TAX
FRASER AND NEAVE, LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.12 ONE-TIER TAX
FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.0173 ONE-TIER TAX
STI ETF	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	20 Feb 2014	SGD 0.043 ONE-TIER TAX
TRIYARDS HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX

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Technical Analysis on Singapore STI: Weekly Report

Weekly wrap of STI:

Singapore shares ended lower for January 2014 tracking falls in the wider region after manufacturing data from China disappointed and the U.S. Federal Reserve made another cut to bond buying. (Trading Tips)

Week starts with huge gap @ 3038.99 and then it made week High @ 3068.05 and then it fell badly again and took support on week low of 3012.26 and finally closed 3021.98 with loss of 54.81 points down by 1.76% wow basis.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3038.99
HIGH	3068.05
LOW	3012.26
CLOSE	3021.98
CHANGE (In Points)	-54.81
% CHANGE	-1.76%

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore December M1 Money Supply Rises Marginally to S$154.60 Bln.

• Singapore inflation eased at averaged 2.4 % for the whole of 2013, "sharply lower" than the 4.6 % in 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a joint statement on Thursday.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI faced free fall in this week, fell below its 200 week MA level of 3021.69 and looking more week.
• STI formed candlestick pattern called Falling Window as opened with huge gape, so made a window between previous week low and this week high level and this difference called Falling window. This pattern is bearish pattern and can move more down side.
• For the coming week we can expect some more downward if STI will continue to sustain below 3015 and next level for bearish move will be 61.8% retracement i.e. 2975 level.
• Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be announce on 5^th Feb 2014.

S 1	S 2	S 3	R 1	R 2	R 3
3015	2975	2950	3050	3075	3095

STI Resistance:

• STI having Resistance @ 3050 and above this level it may take resistance from 3075-3095 levels. (free trading Signals)

STI Support:

• STI having nearest support @ 3015 below this 2975-2950 will be the support area for market. (Trading Tips)

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are moving down.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 3^rd Feb 2014

Company Name	Type		Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
SIA Engg	3rd Quarter Results
GDS GLOBAL LIMITED	DIVIDEND	03 Feb 2014		05 Feb 2014	24 Feb 2014	SGD 0.007 ONE-TIER TAX
MERMAID MARITIME PUBLIC CO LTD	DIVIDEND	03 Feb 2014		05 Feb 2014	21 Feb 2014	USD 0.0086 LESS TAX

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Singapore SGX: Technical View on STI

Market Review:
Singapore Equities opened with good gap and closed higher than previous days close.
Singapore shares open above resistance level of 3065 @ 3073.07 and then it made day high @ 3077.71 and traded whole day above opening level but end of the day it fell below this mark and closed @ 3067.57 after making day low 3063.38 with gain of 13.80 points down by 0.45%.
Some 2.53 billion shares, valued at S$791.4 million were traded. Gainers numbered 222 while losers numbered 157.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3040
Support 2	3015
Support 3	2990
Resistance 1	3075
Resistance 2	3095
Resistance 3	3120

Market forecast:
STI again traded in very narrow range but closed with gait opened with good gap. as investors are cautious about upcoming FED meeting.
STI again formed a small candlestick as it was very narrow range trading, but the positive thing is STI closed above resistance level of 3065.
As per the technical outlook of STI, currently it is in bearish trend and also crossed its major support zone 3065. So for further improvement in trend STI need to maintain it self above 3165 mark.

Support:
STI having immediate support @ 3040 level and below this level it can take support @3015-2990 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3075 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3095-3120

Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning lower.

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