COMEX Technical Analysis Overview

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1335.50/1336.50. It fell briefly to a low of 1333.50/1334.50 as U.S. equities opened at an all-time high after China’s Yuan depreciated to its lowest level in over three years. The metal then advanced to a high of 1343.00/1344.00 after disappointing U.S. data pointed to low consumer confidence that raised concerns about economic recovery; this coupled with worries about China’s economic slowdown and political crisis in emerging markets. It closed the day at 1342.00/1343.00.  Gold closed higher today at 1343, taking out another Fibonacci resistance level at 1337. As was also noted yesterday, there is some small RSI divergence, however RSI is still moving higher at the current 73.52 level. We would want to see it take out the previous high of 75.57. In price, there are previous highs in the 1362 and 1375 areas, but we see the risk as a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. Only a move back below 1308 would change this view. Gold gained after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and a lackluster gain in home prices fueled concerns over the pace of U.S. economic recovery. U.S. home price gains slowed in December, according to a closely watched housing survey that underscored a loss of momentum in the housing recovery Gold holdings at Turkey’s central bank fell by a hefty 31.171 tonnes in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed.
SILVER

Silver retreated overnight to open at 21.82/21.87. It dropped to a low of 21.73/21.78 before recovering to post a high of 22.00/22.05. It concluded the session at 21.96/22.01. Silver closed unchanged today at 21.96. The metal has been trading sideways for the past seven sessions. It has been unable to close above resistance in the 21.97 area, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. We remain bullish so long as the metal holds the 38.2% retracement level at 21.23. The next target is 22.71, the 61.8% retracement level. 

The gold-silver ratio is higher today at current 61.12, but has traded sideways for the past week. Having broken the uptrend last week, we still see the risk as a full retracement to the 57.09 low. Silver prices ended with losses as pressure seen tracking weakness in crude oil and base metals prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI showed U.S. home price gains slowed in December, underscoring a loss of momentum in the housing recovery A spate of soft economic data from the United States and China since the start of the year has drawn investors back to bullion.  
COPPER

A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded in a range between $3.215 a pound and $3.253 a pound. Coppe prices last traded at $3.218 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.65%. The May copper contract fell to $3.204 a pound on Monday, the lowest since February 11, before trimming losses to settle at $3.240 a pound, down 0.61%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.204 a pound, the low from February 24 and resistance at $3.259 a pound, the high from February 24. Data released Monday showed that average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 9.6% in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month’s 9.9% increase. It was the first slowdown in the rate of price increases since November 2012. Meanwhile, market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. is to release a closely-watched report on consumer confidence, as well as private sector data on house price inflation. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. Copper futures declined on Tuesday to re-approach the previous session’s two-week low, amid ongoing concerns that attempts by policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property sector and rein in lending will reduce demand for the industrial metal.  
CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.05 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.05%. On Tuesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $101.95 a barrel and a high of $102.09 a barrel and settled at $101.99 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 14, and resistance at $103.45 a barrel, Monday’s high. Oil prices slid after the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index slipped to 78.1 in February from 79.4 in January, mainly due to concerns over general business conditions, jobs, and earnings. Analysts were expecting the index to tick up to 80.0. The present situation index rose to its highest level in almost six years, but the expectations index declined, indicating that while consumers believe the economy has improved they do not foresee further considerable improvement in the coming months. Giving oil some support were expectations the Federal Reserve will very gradually taper its $65 billion monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the dollar by suppressing long-term borrowing costs to spur recovery. Nymex crude oil prices were mixed between small gains and losses during Asian trade on Wednesday after a sustained decline overnight as the markets anticipated that a sluggish U.S. economy will demand less fuel and energy, while warmer weather forecasts too pushed prices lower.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1336	1329	1347	1357
SILVER	21.74	21.53	22.10	22.45
COPPER	3.2335	3.2085	3.2845	3.3105
CRUDE	100.95	100.07	102.77	103.77

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	New Home Sales	414K	406K	STRONG
9.00P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	1.0M	1.1M	MEDIUM

New Home Sales

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	New Residential Sales;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 5, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;

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Singapore STI Weekly Technical Analysis

Weekly wrap of STI:

For the third week of February the STI still continues to be in uptrend & the trend seems to continue further as all the major resistance that we have forecasted in the last weekly report of 14 Feb 2014 has been broken positively for this week and our last weekly report hit accurately on our forecasted levels

As the uptrend start from 3048 the opening level at 17th Feb. and then the STI made the high of 3109.80 for this week and closed at 3099.93. For this week the market covered the movement of almost 65 points. Observing the candle & the chart formation the market has recovered from the downfall that came on 23 Jan 2014.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3070	3050	3020	3115	3145	3165

 Macroeconomic factors:

• The Gross Domestic Production rate in Singapore was announced at 6.10% in the Q4 2013. The average growth rate for last 6 years was 5.56%
• Singapore’s fourth-quarter home prices slid for the first time in almost two years to 72% to 565 units
  
• Australia based Seek Ltd world’s largest online employment market place by revenue announced A$380.7million a 38% jump in turnover,
• Singapore government proposed Trans boundary Haze Pollution Bills with a criminal penalty of up to S$300,000
• Singapore Domestic wholesale trade increased 3.3% in Q4 Dec 2013, general wholesale trade sec made the largest growth of 32.7% for Q4 Dec 2013 On YOY basis.
• 8.6% of growth in new business formation in Singapore for the Q4 Dec 2013, around 14,500 new businesses was formed in Singapore.
• More over the week was full of results like Ezion Holding, Biosensors, Capitaland, etc that gave a good support to the recovery of the STI. Major sector supported by the volume were Service & Manufacturing.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

For continues 3rd week of winning strike, STI closed higher side with bullish outlook for coming week too.STI made week high above 3100 mark @ 3109.80 mark  just below its 20 week MA level of 3014.

STI formed a long white candle as Index move low to high, STI opens lower and then it continuously cross resistance levels one by one and now trading near to 3100 level and if it shows same movement in next week we will see major resistance @ 3015 level.

For coming week STI may remain upside whenever it traded above 3050 mark, its major resistance will come @ 3115-3145 level. Also Singapore budget declaration will effect on coming week on Singapore equities.

STI Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3115 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3165

STI Support:

STI having immediate support @ 3070 level and below this level it can take support @3050-3020 will be the support zone for STI.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3048.70
HIGH	3109.80
LOW	3044.50
CLOSE	3099.93

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators MACD given its bullish crossover in Daily chart, RSI and CCI are trading in recovery mode, RSI is in oversold zone so we can expect recovery in it.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 24th Feb 2014

Company Name	Type	Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
China Fish	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014	07 Mar 2014
Croesus RTr	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014	31 Mar 2014
Silverlake	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014	14 Mar 2014
Swing Media	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014

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COMEX Report Of Daily Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1311.50/1312.50 following soft data out of China and France. The metal climbed to a high of 1317.50/1318.50 before dipping to a low of 1311.00/1312.00 as the dollar stabilized and U.S. equities rose following mixed U.S. economic data that showed a small drop in initial jobless claims. A weak Philly Fed number brought in fresh interest, leading the metal to a close of 1316.50/1317.50.
Gold has had a nice bounce higher today from 1308 to 1323. The overall price action appears to be a bullish wedge. The move starting February from 1239 to 1332 was very impulsive in nature; the pull back to 1308 corrective. Risk is for another run to the topside with a break of 1332 targeting last major high seen October 28th at 1361. Only a break of 1308 would yield a deeper correction to 1297 (23.6% of the 1185 to 1332 calendar year up move).
Gold slipped as the dollar firmed after minutes from a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting indicated support for continued tapering of its stimulus
Prices benefited after data showed factory activity in China fell to a seven-month low and a closely watched gauge of U.S. manufacturing sector fell sharply.
India’s plan to keep tax on gold imports at current levels could underpin sentiment in the physical market as it will lead to more smuggling.
SILVER
Silver retreated overnight to open at the session low of 21.60/21.65. Shortly after open, it posted a high of 21.76/21.81 before closing the day at 21.65/21.70.
Silver moved back higher today to the upper end of our one month range. The metal seems to have found support at the 23.6% Fibo at 21.28. Resistance is seen at 21.98, which is lastweek’s high and the 50% retracement level of the last down leg from 25.09 to 18.51. While the metal holds above 21.28 we see risk of another leg higher to the 61.8% retracement level at 22.70.
The gold-silver ratio remains heavy at current 60.63. The drop this month from 65.10 to 60.35 overhangs the market. Support is seen at 60.23 from the December 31st low. The 60.17 level represents the key 61.8% Fibo of our five-month up move from 57.12 to 65.10. Despite the technical support we see the risk of another leg lower to 59.00. Only a move back above 61.55 would shake the bearish bias.
Silver dropped as after investors continued to sell for profits, shrugging off a soft regional U.S. output report as weather-related setback that won’t alter monetary policy.
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended February 8 rose to 2.981 million from 2.944 million in the preceding week.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.68% i.e. 68.81 tonnes to 10081.70 tonnes from 10150.51 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between $3.257 a pound and $3.288 a pound.
Copper prices last traded at $3.268 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.55%. The March copper contract ended Wednesday’s session unchanged to settle at $3.285 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.253 a pound, the low from February 18 and resistance at USD3.302 a pound, the high from February 19.
Data released earlier showed that China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.3 in February from a final reading of 49.5 in January, remaining below the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction for a second month.
Copper traders consider shifts in the HSBC PMI an indicator of China’s copper demand, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Meanwhile, copper traders looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy and second-biggest consumer of the industrial metal.
Copper futures declined on Thursday, after data showed that manufacturing activity in China fell to a seven-month low in February, further suggesting that the world’s second-largest economy may be facing a slowdown.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.79 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.08%.
On Thursday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $102.80 a barrel and a high of $102.95 a barrel to settle at $102.84 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 13, and resistance at $103.28 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index deteriorated to minus 6.3 in February from January’s reading of 9.4. Analysts had expected the index to inch down to 8.0 in February.
The soft numbers fueled concerns that U.S. recovery still faces headwinds made worse by rough winter weather, and the country may demand less fuel and energy going forward than previously anticipated.
Also on Thursday, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 3,000 to 336,000, slightly below expectations for a decline of 4,000.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in January, in line with forecasts. Consumer prices were 0.1% higher from a month earlier, also matching forecasts.
Core consumer prices, which are stripped of volatile food and energy components, were also up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis and 0.1% from the previous month.
Weekly supply data also watered down prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 973,000 barrels last week, less than market expectations for a gain of 2.01 million barrels.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 309,000 barrels, confounding expectations for a decline of 538,000 barrels.
Meanwhile inventories of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 339,000 million barrels, far less than market calls for a loss of 1.89 million.

Nymex crude prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during morning Asian trade on Friday on falling demand and higher U.S. supplies.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1310	1303	1324	1330
SILVER	21.42	21.16	21.92	22.42
COPPER	3.2578	3.2366	3.2943	3.3096
CRUDE	102.60	102.30	103.36	104.11

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	Existing Home Sales	4.87M	4.73M	STRONG

Existing Home Sales

Source	National Association of Realtors(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

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COMEX Report of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged marginally lower overnight to open at the intraday low of 1317.00/1318.00. It moved up higher following weaker-than expected U.S data that included a drop in NY Fed manufacturing activity and a decline in home builder confidence as investors remain cautious on global economic growth. 

The metal consolidated to close at the session high of 1324.00/1325.00. Gold closed lower today at 1324, unable to breach resistance in the 1337 area after moving from a low of 1182 to a high of 1331 since the end of 2013. Support is at 1308, the 50% retracement of the last downtrend (August to December 2013), followed by the 200-day moving average at 1303. RSI in Gold on the daily chart had moved into serious ‘overbought’ territory at 75.60, so a correction is likely healthy for the uptrend. We may see a temporary pullback into the 1284 area. We would re-assess our bullish view if gold breaches 1278 on the downside.

 SILVER

Silver moved marginally higher overnight to open at 21.50/21.55, which was also the low of the day. It moved to a high of 21.88/21.93 prior to concluding the session at 21.87/21.92.

Silver closed higher at 21.92, forming a potential hanging man in the candlestick charts. A hanging man, as implied by the name, would be bearish, but given it follows a strong advance, it must be confirmed by a down-day tomorrow. The strong breakout on Friday through resistance in the 20.64 area was bullish, and was confirmed by a breakout in RSI to a new 6-month high in the 76.50 area. There is a downtrend in play off the April 2011 high which may act as resistance. This downtrend currently comes in at 22.51.

The gold-silver ratio made another bearish drop today after a big drop on Friday. The ratio is currently trading at 60.43. It has now definitively broken its uptrend which had support in the 61.94 area – this area should now act as resistance. This latest move opens up a full retracement to the 57.09 low from August 2013.

COPPER

Copper settled up 0.8% as support from a strong euro helped cushion concerns about short-term demand in China after its central bank moved to tighten the money supply.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued cash-draining forward bond repurchase agreements on Tuesday, sucking $7.9 billion out of the system, pushing up the cost of money after unexpectedly strong credit growth in January. China is the biggest consumer of copper, which is used in construction and power cables. It imported record volumes of copper last month, partly for consumption and partly to ease tight credit conditions.

Goldman Sachs sees Chinese bonded inventories at 700,000 tonnes, up from 550,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year, it said in a note. The euro hit a seven-week high against the dollar, which was trading at a six-week low against a basket of currencies.

In the week ahead, the focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering of monetary stimulus, with the release of its minutes on Wednesday, and on China’s slowdown, with a purchasing managers’ index due on Thursday. Both factors have been behind this year’s sell-off in emerging markets. U.S. manufacturing last week recorded its biggest drop in more than 4-1/2 years in January as cold weather disrupted production. It was the latest indication that the world’s biggest economy got off to a weak start this year. 

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at USD102.45 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.34%.

On Tuesday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD102.27 a barrel and a high of USD102.66 a barrel to settle at 102.10 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.31 a barrel, the earlier low, and resistance at USD102.95 a barrel, the high from Oct. 16.

Updated weather forecasting models indicated that a strong winter storm was set to sweep over the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and bring strong winds and fresh snowfall.

Frigid weather reports sent crude prices rising on sentiments demand for heating oil will climb as temperatures fall across the heavily-populated northeastern U.S.

Soft data out of the U.S. sent prices rising as well due to the monetary implications they may bring.

The dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index came in at 4.48 for February, down from a 20-month high of 12.51 in January. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 9.00.

Nymex crude prices continued to rise during Asian trading hours on Wednesday after hitting four-month highs on strong U.S. data, a winter storm and supply concerns in the Middle East.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1306	1294	1325	1332
SILVER	20.74	20.07	21.79	22.16
COPPER	3.2493	3.2341	3.2748	3.2851
CRUDE	99.66	98.62	100.70	101.10

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Building Permits	0.99M	0.98M	STRONG
7.00P.M	PPI m/m	0.4%	0.2%	STRONG
7.00P.M	Core PPI m/m	0.3%	0.2%	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 18, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau (latest release)

PPI m/m

FF Alert	Source changed series calculation formula as of this release;
Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data because the reports are significantly correlated;

Core PPI m/m

FF Alert	Source changed series calculation formula as of this release;
Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food, energy, and trade;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	Food, energy, and trade prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which tends to mute the importance of the Core data;
Also Called	Core Finished Goods PPI, Core PPI for Final Demand;

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COMEX Technical Analysis Outlook

SILVER
Silver advanced overnight – crossing the 200-day MA of $21 – to open at 21.07/21.12. It briefly touched a low of 21.05/21.10 before following gold to a high of 21.42/21.47. It concluded the session at 21.40/21.45.
Silver also closed higher this week, breaking through a downtrend that had been in place since August 2013 and closing at 21.45. RSI is now testing
resistance around the 52 level. These are encouraging signs that silver has formed a bottom. The next resistance is at the previous high of 23.09. Support is at the low of the recent range, at 18.83.
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower this week, currently at 61.50, and is testing support from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.03. We remain bullish the ratio as long as the uptrend holds. Resistance is at the recent high of 67.56.
Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria’s government.
An early end to stimulus could hurt precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes
GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight, going past the 200-day MA of $1304, to open at 1317.00/1318.00. After retreating to a low of 1313.50/1314.50 early in the session the metal climbed to a high of 1321.00/1322.00 as the dollar depreciated in value following weak U.S. economic data showing a decline in industrial and manufacturing output. Range trading throughout the afternoon prior to concluding the session at 1318.50/1319.50.
Gold had a bullish breakout week, closing at 1319 and breaking through two major resistance levels in the 1301 to 1308 area. Both were 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Momentum has turned higher, with RSI close to 54. We are bullish gold, targeting a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. In the meantime, gold faces resistance at 1361 then at 1433, the last two major highs. Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value. Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s forces within days SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery rose to a session high of USD3.306 a pound, the most since January 23.
Copper prices last traded at USD3.282 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.55%. The March copper contract ended Friday’s session 0.45% higher to settle at USD3.264 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at USD3.244 a pound, the low from February 14 and resistance at USD3.338 a pound, the high from January 23.
Trade volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, with Comex floor trading remaining closed for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. All electronic trades placed will register on Tuesday, when the market resumes normal trading hours.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, rose to a record-high of CNY2.58 trillion in January.
The report also showed that bank lending rose to a four-year high of CNY1.32 trillion last month, easing concerns over tightening liquidity levels.
Copper futures rose to a three-week high on Monday, amid speculation demand from top consumer China will increase after data pointed to an improvement in Chinese credit growth.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at USD100.54 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.40%.
On Monday the April contract traded in a range between USD100.52 a barrel and USD100.74 a barrel and ended the session at USD100.13 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.45 a barrel, the low from February 14 and resistance at USD101.38 a barrel, the high from February 12.
Trade volumes remain lighted on Monday, with Nymex floor trading remaining closed for the U.S. President’s Day holiday. All electronic trades placed will register on Tuesday, when the market resumes normal trading hours.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, rose to a record-high of CNY2.58 trillion in January.
The report also showed that bank lending rose to a four-year high of CNY1.32 trillion last month, easing concerns over tightening liquidity levels.
China is the world’s second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.
Nymex crude oil futures rose during Asian trading hours on Tuesday amid speculation that demand from China will increase after data pointed to an improvement in Chinese credit growth.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1306	1294	1325	1332
SILVER	20.74	20.07	21.79	22.16
COPPER	3.2493	3.2341	3.2748	3.2851
CRUDE	99.66	98.62	100.70	101.10

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Empire State Manufacturing Index	12.5	9.9	MEDIUM
7.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-29.3B	28.9B	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	NAHB Housing Market Index	56	56	MEDIUM

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of New York (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via	Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;
Also Called	New York Manufacturing Index;

TIC Long-Term Purchases

Source	Department of the Treasury (latest release)
Measures	Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
FF Notes	This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment – for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;
Why Traders Care	Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation’s securities;

NAHB Housing Market Index

Source	NAHB (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a negative outlook;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales;
Acro Expand	National Association of Home Builders (NAHB);

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COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at the session low of 1292.00/1293.00. 

The metal climbed after weaker-than-expected U.S. data showed disappointing consumer retail spending and lackluster growth in jobs. The metal touched a high of 1300.50/1301.50 before concluding the session at 1300.00/1301.00.

 Gold traded higher today, closing at 1301 and continuing its uptrend off the December 31st low. We are bullish gold so long as it holds support at the 1278 area. The next resistance is 1308, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. RSI is confirming the move, making a new high dating back to August 2013. RSI is currently at 69.45, in bullish territory, and a sign that the uptrend has finally gained momentum.

Gold gained following the release of unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales figures for January and separate report showing that initial jobless claims rose last week.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase.

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.94% to 806.35 tonnes from 798.85 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.20/20.25, which was also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.40/20.45 prior to concluding the session at 20.39/20.44.

Silver had a strong move higher today, closing at 20.44. The metal has moved from 19.01 to 20.44 in the past two weeks. RSI has finally broken through resistance and is currently at 62.32. These signs are encouraging; however, as we have had false breaks before in this long sideways consolidation, we will wait for a positive weekly close through 20.64 resistance to shift out of neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at current 63.50, testing support at the same level, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend (in July-August 2013). There is strong support from the daily uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.82. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37.

Silver gained as support seen from a sharply lower dollar and weaker equity markets.

Recent U.S. economic data, including two straight months of weak jobs growth, have raised questions over whether the world’s biggest economy can sustain growth

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between USD3.239 a pound and USD3.256 a pound.

Copper prices last traded at USD3.240 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.5%.

The March copper contract rallied to USD3.263 a pound on Wednesday, the most since January 29, before trimming gains to settle at USD3.256 a pound, up 1.28%.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.202 a pound, the low from February 11 and resistance at USD3.263 a pound, the high from February 12.

Investors were looking ahead to U.S. retail sales data due later in the day, amid concerns that sales slumped in January after a 0.2% rise in December.

Recent weak jobs reports have raised concerns over whether the U.S. recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

Market players were also awaiting the release of inflation data out of China due on Friday to further gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper futures pulled back from a more than one-week high on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the world’s two-largest economies..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at USD100.17 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.18%.

The March contract settled down 0.02% on Thursday to end at USD100.35 a barrel.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.11 a barrel, the low from February 10 and resistance at USD101.38 a barrel, the high from February 12.

Oil prices remained under pressure after the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase. Retail sales for December were revised down to a 0.1% decline from a previously reported increase of 0.2%.

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Core sales in December were revised down to a gain of 0.3% from a previously reported increase of 0.7%.

Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.

A separate report showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose unexpectedly, underlining concerns over the strength of the labor market.

Crude oil futures edged lower during early European trading hours on Friday, as investors awaited the release of U.S. data later in the trading session, after disappointing economic reports on Thursday disappointed.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1290	12681	1313	1322
SILVER	20.17	19.95	20.74	20.96
COPPER	3.2273	3.2046	3.2643	3.2786
CRUDE	99.61	98.87	100.87	101.39

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME:IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
14.01.14	7.00P.M	Import Prices m/m	0.0%	-0.1%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	7.45P.M	Industrial Production m/m	0.3%	0.2%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	8.25P.M	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	80.4	80.6	STRONG

Import Prices m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 13, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called	Import Price Index;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Industrial Production m/m

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called	Factory Output;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

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