Technical Analysis on Singapore STI: Weekly Report

Weekly wrap of STI:

Singapore shares ended lower for January 2014 tracking falls in the wider region after manufacturing data from China disappointed and the U.S. Federal Reserve made another cut to bond buying. (Trading Tips)

Week starts with huge gap @ 3038.99 and then it made week High @ 3068.05 and then it fell badly again and took support on week low of 3012.26 and finally closed 3021.98 with loss of 54.81 points down by 1.76% wow basis.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3038.99
HIGH	3068.05
LOW	3012.26
CLOSE	3021.98
CHANGE (In Points)	-54.81
% CHANGE	-1.76%

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore December M1 Money Supply Rises Marginally to S$154.60 Bln.

• Singapore inflation eased at averaged 2.4 % for the whole of 2013, "sharply lower" than the 4.6 % in 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a joint statement on Thursday.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI faced free fall in this week, fell below its 200 week MA level of 3021.69 and looking more week.
• STI formed candlestick pattern called Falling Window as opened with huge gape, so made a window between previous week low and this week high level and this difference called Falling window. This pattern is bearish pattern and can move more down side.
• For the coming week we can expect some more downward if STI will continue to sustain below 3015 and next level for bearish move will be 61.8% retracement i.e. 2975 level.
• Singapore Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be announce on 5^th Feb 2014.

S 1	S 2	S 3	R 1	R 2	R 3
3015	2975	2950	3050	3075	3095

STI Resistance:

• STI having Resistance @ 3050 and above this level it may take resistance from 3075-3095 levels. (free trading Signals)

STI Support:

• STI having nearest support @ 3015 below this 2975-2950 will be the support area for market. (Trading Tips)

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are moving down.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 3^rd Feb 2014

Company Name	Type		Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
SIA Engg	3rd Quarter Results
GDS GLOBAL LIMITED	DIVIDEND	03 Feb 2014		05 Feb 2014	24 Feb 2014	SGD 0.007 ONE-TIER TAX
MERMAID MARITIME PUBLIC CO LTD	DIVIDEND	03 Feb 2014		05 Feb 2014	21 Feb 2014	USD 0.0086 LESS TAX

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Weekly Technical View on Singapore Stright Time Index

Weekly wrap of STI:
Singapore shares tracked losses and heading for their biggest weekly loss in more than 3-1/2 months, Index slipped after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data raised concerns over the economy.
 
Week starts with flat node and initially traded in very narrow and same range below 50 day MA level, and mid of the week STI crossed its support level and badly fell 3100 mark. STI was opened @ 3137.26 and then it made a high of 3142.05 , and faced resistance at that level and fell down , took support at 3071.28 and finally closed at 3075.99 with loss of 71.34 points down by 2.27% wow basis.

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore inflation eased at averaged 2.4 % for the whole of 2013, "sharply lower" than the 4.6 per cent in 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a joint statement.
• Singapore 4Q Private-Home Prices Fall 0.9% on Qtr Vs +0.4% in 3Q.
• Singapore's manufacturing sector expanded by a surprising 6.2%in December compared to a year ago, as a 22.2% jump in electronics output helped to offset a 14.9 % contraction in the biomedical manufacturing cluster. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, industrial production would have grown an even stronger 12.1% year-on-year.
• Singapore's private home prices fall first time since Q1 2012, down 0.9% in Q4

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3060	3030	3010	3115	3135	3150

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3137.26
HIGH	3142.05
LOW	3071.28
CLOSE	3075.99
CHANGE (In Points)	-71.34
% CHANGE	-2.27%

Weekly Technical view on STI

Market Forecast for week ahead: 

STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3140-45 mark this week, index didn’t even crossed its 50 week MA and fell badly below 3115 mark and crossed 3100.

STI formed long black candle which is highly bearish candlestick pattern. This is a single and strong candle which denotes more bearishness. It visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.

For the coming week we can expect some more downward if STI will continue to sustain below 3100 and next level for bearish move will be 3050-3015.

STI Resistance: 

STI having Resistance @ 3115 and above this level it may take resistance from 3135-3150 levels.

STI Support:

STI having nearest support @ 3060 below this 3030-3010 will be the support area for market.

Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are moving down.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 27^th January 2014

Company Name	Type		Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	27 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.00269 TAX EXEMPT
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	27 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.02814
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	27 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.00615 LESS TAX
CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	25 Feb 2014	011013 - 311213 SGD 0.0003
CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	25 Feb 2014	011013 - 311213 SGD 0.02107 LESS TAX
FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	28 Feb 2014	011013 - 311213 SGD 0.025 LESS TAX
JAYA HOLDINGS LTD	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	12 Feb 2014	SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	06 Mar 2014	1OCT-31DEC, DRP SGD 0.0014
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST	DIVIDEND	27 Jan 2014		29 Jan 2014	06 Mar 2014	1OCT-31DEC, DRP SGD 0.0237 LESS TAX
OSIM	Full Year Results
Chosen	Half Year Results
China Essen	3rd Quarter Results
Chew's Gp	AGM
Keong Hong	AGM
F & N	AGM & EGM
China Fish	AGM & EGM
Marco Polo	AGM & EGM
Pac Andes	SGM & AGM

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Weekly Technical Analysis For FOREX

The US dollar had an fine week, winning against currencies across the board, with the Aussie and the loonie suffering the biggest losses.  German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Rate decision in Japan and the UK as well as US Unemployment Claims and housing data are the main events on our calendar. Let's have an approach on the main market-movers for this week.

The US manufacturing sector registered strong performance with a remarkable rise in Empire Manufacturing. Together with a rise in retail sales and solid inflation numbers, the US dollar left the disappointing NFP behind and enjoyed gains. The pound managed to give a fight to the dollar thanks to superb retail sales, but the rest were on the defensive. The Canadian dollar reached a new four year low against the greenback, and the Aussie collapsed to new 3 year lows after a terrible jobs report. Even the “Teflon” euro eventually depreciated. Volatility continues to provide opportunities.

UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of jobless claims in the UK fell by 36,700 in November to 1.27 million, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in October, to its lowest rate since 2009. Prime Minister David Cameron remarked that the plan is working, but there is still much work to be done. The workforce should be larger in order to provide solid economic recovery. A further decline of 32,300 jobless claims is forecasted while unemployment is expected to decline to 7.3%.

Source	Office for National Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 19, 2014
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	ILO Unemployment Rate, Jobless Rate;

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, pushing the four week average by 13,500 to 335,000. The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits is expected to decline since a special federal program expired last month and is starting to affect recipients. Nevertheless, the number of new claims stabilized near pre-recession levels, indicating a solid recovery in the US economy. Jobless claims are expected to increase to 331,000.

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. U.S. home sales declined sharply in November to an annual rate of 4.90 million units, the lowest level in nearly a year, due to an increase in interest rates. This drop suggests the housing market is losing its growth momentum. The Fed tapering worsened the situation further as well as the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s plan to reduce the maximum size of mortgages which can be bought by taxpayer which is expected to have its toll on the housing sector. A rise to 4.99 million units is expected now.

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 21, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;

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Singapore SGX: STI Technical Analysis

Weekly wrap of STI:

STI were struggling to cross its previous week high but can’t able to cross that level and traded in a same range however closed down from opening.

Week starts with higher opening @ 3150.74 levels and then it fell down and made week low at 3115.80 below 3120 support level. After taking support on lower levels it recovers and made high of 3155.89 and then closed at 3147.33 with gain of 3.51 points up by 0.11% wow basis.

Macroeconomic factors:

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) beat expectations to grow 6 % year-on-year in December, turning around from a revised 8.9 % fall in November to stage its strongest rise in more than a year.

Month-on-month, the NODX also rose a seasonally-adjusted 9.2 % in December, reversing November's 4.2% contraction. This too, beat the median forecast of 2.8%.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3155 level this week, didn’t crossed this high. Faced selling pressure at higher levels and crossed support level.

• STI formed candlestick pattern called Tweezers top, where 2 consecutive candles shares a same level of High and cant able to cross this high. Here in STI faced resistance @ 3153-3155 mark from last 2 weeks and cant able to sustain above this. The Tweezers Top reversal pattern is extremely helpful because it visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.
• For the coming week we can expect some more upward move if it will maintain above 3155 levels than it could touch 3190-3220 mark and on the other side if STI crossed its 3120 mark then we will see more downside movement.

STI Resistance:

• STI having Resistance @ 3155 and above this level it may take resistance from 3175-3190 levels.

STI Support:

• STI having nearest support @ 3120 below this 2995-2965 will be the support area for market.

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are recovering.

S1	S2	S3	R 1	R 2	R 3
3020	2995	2965	3155	3175	3190

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3150.74
HIGH	3155.89
LOW	3115.80
CLOSE	3147.33
CHANGE (In Points)	+3.51
% CHANGE	+0.11%

Weekly Technical view on STI

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Comex Technical Report for GOLD, SILVER, COPPER & CRUDE OIL

GOLD

Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.

 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.

 Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week

Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1235	1231	1245	1254

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.

Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.

The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.

Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.

The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.

World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.93	19.81	20.26	20.49

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

  

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.

 Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3241	3.3058	3.3651	3.3878

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday's high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December.

 Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation's factories will hike demand for energy.Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.

Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	93.49	92.45	94.53	95.10

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7:00pm	Building Permits	1.01M	1.01M	STRONG
8:25pm	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	82.5	83.47	STRONG
8:30pm	JOLTS Job Openings	3.93M	3.97M	STRONG

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;

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Singapore STI Tecnical Analysis Report

Market Review:

Singapore shares edged down today despite robust US data and upbeat earnings from Bank of America, while stocks of commodities firms fell on concerns about changing supply and demand dynamics.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3120
Support 2	3105
Support 3	3090
Resistance 1	3155
Resistance 2	3175
Resistance 3	3195

Market forecast:

STI opens gap up @ 3150 and made day high @ 3155 mark just above then recent high also traded above 50 day MA level.

STI opens at day high but didn’t sustain that level and fell down and took support at 3135.47 and finally closed above 50 day MA level. This is positive sign.

For the coming days STI have to maintain above its 3120-3140 mark, if STI maintain this level then we can upside move soon, on the other side if it would not be able to maintain this than index can lose more.

STI Day Performance
Open	3150.00
High	3155.70
Low	3135.47
Close	3140.44
Change(Points)	-2.81
% Change	-0.09%
Volume	2482.1M
Rise	154
Fall	242
Unch	393

  
Support:

STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3155 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3175-3195

Technical indicators:

Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning.

Top 5 Gainers

Scrip Name	CMP	%change
Jardine C&C	39.97	1.45
Kep Corp	10.94	0.83
CapMallsAsia	1.905	0.79
HPH Trust US$	0.68	0.74
GLP	2.95	0.34

Top 5 Losers

Scrip Name	CMP	%change
SGX	7.04	-1.12
Noble Grp	1.025	-0.97
Olam	1.535	-0.97
GoldenAgr	0.52	-0.95
CapitaMall	1.865	-0.8

IMPORTANT FACTORS: 
According to the Department of Statistics, compared to November 2012 retail sales declined 8.7% in November 2013, mainly due to lower motor vehicles sales. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales went up by 0.4%.

EZION Holdings announced it has received a letter of intent to provide a service rig to be used by a South-east Asian based national oil company over a five-year period for about US$94 million (S$119.7 million).

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Technical Analysis Report on Singapore's STI

Market Review:
STI recovers from its yesterday’s losses and closed with good recovery above 3135 level.
Technical view on STI 

STI Day Performance
Open	3131.33
High	3146.77
Low	3131.33
Close	3143.25
Change(Points)	+19.50
% Change	+0.62%
Volume	3423.3M
Rise	249
Fall	137
Unch	403

Market forecast: 
STI opens with gap up @ 3131 level above its yesterday’s close, the gap window made by yesterdays close and todays open of almost 10 points. 
Today STI formed a candlestick pattern called belt hold, which is a long white candle who does not have lower shadow but having a small upper shadow it opens low and closed near to day high as formed a small upper shadow. Belt Hold candle is a single candle which is highly bullish candlestick pattern.
For the coming days STI have to maintain above its 3120-3140 mark, if STI maintain this level then we can upside move soon, on the other side if it would not be able to maintain this than index can lose more.

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3120
Support 2	3105
Support 3	3090
Resistance 1	3155
Resistance 2	3175
Resistance 3	3195

Support:

STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3155 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3175-3195

Technical indicators:

Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning down.

Top 5 Gainers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change
Jardine C&C	39.4	4.84
JSH 500US$	34	2.75
JMH 400US$	55.87	2.53
CapitaMall	1.88	1.35
SGX	7.12	1.28

Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change
SIA Engg	4.96	-0.6
ComfortDelGro	1.975	-0.5
StarHub	4.22	-0.47
GLP	2.94	-0.34
ST Engg	3.86	-0.26

IMPORTANT FACTORS:

Home-buying sentiment turns extra cautious. According to Colliers International, overall private residential property prices are expected to at most slip by 5% in 2014, following 2013’s moderated 1.2% increase.

Corporate Action as on 16th January 2014

Company Name	Type	Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
Westminster	EGM
AIMSAMPI Reit	EGM

Stock for 16th January 2013:

• HPH TRUST US$: stock is taking resistance @ 0.680 mark from 8 weeks this level is 50 day MA mark. If this will cross 0.68 marks then it will touch 0.750-0.800 in coming days.
• HPH TRUST US$ is in consolidation phrase after taking support at lower levels so indicators are already in bullish zone.

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Comex Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of 1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of 1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed the day at 1247.00/1248.00.

Gold closed higher this week at 1247, the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180 was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in 2011. 

The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180 low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of 1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.

Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent

Dollar weakened fueling expectations for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program at a slower pace than once expected.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1232	1218	1254	1262

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.

Silver closed unchanged this week at 20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August, which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63. The trend remains bearish.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at 60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend remains bullish.

Silver rose as investors recalibrated their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well below expectations for a 196,000 increase.

Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an attractive hedge.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.76	19.31	20.46	20.71

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

Comex, copper for March delivery jumped 1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound. Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.

China’s copper imports inched up 1.3 percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291 tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today. Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent. Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping for a 46th day.

Copper rose as traders bet that an apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.

China’s copper imports inched up 1.3% in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases

Data showed China’s export growth weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if economic growth isn’t sustained.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3051	3.2688	3.3621	3.3828

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.

Crudeoil settled flat recovering from lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns.

China’s crude oil imports rose 13 percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels per day as two big refineries reopened.

Crude demand for this year could rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	92.00	91.30	93.40	94.08

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

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