COMEX Report: Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1227.00/1228.00. Shortly after open, it briefly touched a high of 1228.00/1229.00 before declining quickly to a low of 1218.75/1219.75 as global equities edged higher and the Dollar strengthened following robust employment data from the U.S. that showed a better-than-expected increase in private sector jobs. Choppy trades for the remainder of the session led the metal to close higher at 1225.50/1226.50.

Gold tried lower today but held above our December high pivot of 1218. The close at 1225 keeps us in the bullish up cycle that started off 1882 on December 31. We like the idea of a test above 1252 while 1218 remains firm.

Gold ended with losses weighed down by upbeat U.S. private-sector jobs data

Minutes of Fed’s meeting, showed many members wanted to proceed with caution in trimming the central bank’s $85 billion monthly asset purchases.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.50 tonnes i.e. -0.19% to 793.12 tonnes from 794.62 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1218	1210	1232	1239

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

 SILVER

Silver dropped overnight to open at 19.61/19.66, which was the high of the day. It then followed gold to a low of 19.30/19.35 before recovering to close at 19.51/19.56.

Silver is weak today closing at 19.51. The rejection of Silver near 20.38 has taken the shine off the metal. Major support is not seen until 18.91. 

The Gold-Silver ratio spiked higher again today with the ratio moving above recent high of 62.87. The topside appears the risk in the ratio with key resistance not seen until 64.10 the December 4 high.

Silver dropped after data showed that U.S. non-farm private employment rose at the strongest pace in two years last month.

US non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 238,000 in December, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 200,000

Two top Fed officials said they expected the bank to reduce stimulus at a steady pace.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.32	19.01	19.83	20.12

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.360 a pound during European morning trade, little changed on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.355 a pound and USD3.372 a pound.

The March contract ended Tuesday’s session unchanged at USD3.359 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.330 a pound, the low from January 6 and resistance at USD3.387 a pound, the high from January 3.
Investors were turning their attention to the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, due for release later Wednesday, for indications on the possible timing of further reductions in the central bank’s stimulus program.

Copper futures swung between small gains and losses in rangebound trade on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the upcoming U.S. jobs report.

Copper ended with losses weighed down by a strong dollar and concerns about economic recovery in China.

Euro zone unemployment was unchanged at a record high for the eighth month in a row in November, but retail sales made the biggest monthly jump in 12 years.

US ADP employment in December grew more than expected, hitting a 13-month high and lifted market optimism toward US December non-farm employment data.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3260	3.3095	3.3680	3.3935

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in February traded at USD92.55 a barrel during Asian morning trade, up 0.23%. On Wednesday New York-traded oil futures held range bound between USD92.48 a barrel and USD92.64 a barrel.
The February contract settled down at USD92.61 a barrel on Wednesday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD92.57 a barrel, the low from Dec. 2, and resistance at USD94.58 a barrel, Monday's high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 3, beating expectations for a decline of 849,000 barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 357.9 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.24 million barrels, significantly higher than expectations for a gain of 2.28 million barrels. 

Crude oil dropped after official data revealed gasoline and distillates stockpiles rose, while falling crude inventories cushioned losses somewhat.

The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels

While Libyan officials say production could recover to nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this week. More Updates

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	91.60	90.97	93.52	94.81

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	339K	337K	STRONG
11.31P.M	30-y Bond Auction	3.9	2.4	LOW

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	CRUDE Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 16, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

30-y Bond Auction

Source	Treasury Direct (latest release)
Measures	Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;
Frequency	Conducted monthly;
Next Release	Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes	Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);
Why Traders Care	Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence;
Also Called	Treasury Auction, Note Auction;

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COMEX Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold edged higher overnight to open at 1229.00/1230.00. It  dipped shortly after open to a low of 1226.50/1227.50 and then  quickly surged to a two-week high of 1240.00/1241.00 while  global equities fell and the Dollar remained steady. As well, thin  volumes were expected following a snowstorm that hit the U.S.  Northeast as the metal traded within range for the rest of the  afternoon before closing under at 1238.50/1239.50.

Gold is closing the week at 1238. The weekly price action is quite  encouraging from a price perspective. Last week’s candle was a  “Inside week” or “Harami” which means “pregnant” in Japanese. This week Gold touched a fresh cycle low to 1182 but the close  above last week’s high of 1219 shows as an outside week reversal.  This is bullish. Focus now is on December high of 1267. Big picture,  the inability to break the 2013 low at 1180 is encouraging.
Gold prices gained rallying for a second consecutive day with a boost from renewed fund buying and equities’ weakness.
Fed Chairman said U.S. central bank is committed to highly accommodative policy even after deciding last month to trim its bond-buying stimulus.
Bullion prices dropped heavily last week as solid U.S. economic data underlined expectations the Federal Reserve will begin curbing stimulus. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R2
GOLD	1226	1214	1245	1251

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver dipped marginally lower overnight to open at 20.08/20.13. It  dropped to a session low of 20.00/20.05 before lifting to a high of  20.22/20.27 on the back of gold and then finally concluding the  day at 20.20/20.25 on low volumes.
Silver is closing the week unchanged near 20.20. The fresh cycle  low to 18.85 can bounce higher is encouraging. Silver remains  below the December low of 20.47. A close above this level would  open a move to 21.23 the 38.2% of our 4 month down move off  25.09.

 The gold-silver ratio is higher this week at 61.45 compared to last  Friday’s 60.23 close. The ratio has been as high as 62.87 this week.
Silver rose as anticipation that two widely watched commodity indexes will drive more money to gold and silver buoyed prices of the precious metals
Markets are looking towards a slew of data this week, including U.S. nonfarm payrolls and trade numbers, to gauge the strength of economic recovery
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.49% i.e. 49.15 tonnes to 9909.49 tonnes from 9958.64 tonnes. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R2
SILVER	19.96	19.62	20.30	20.64

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

 COPPER
Copper settled down -0.88%  as expectations of higher supplies and concerns over Chinese growth weighed on the market. Copper has gained some support from a lack of readily available refined metal because of falling exchange stocks. But ample copper concentrate seen flowing into the market this year will result in swelling supplies.

A services gauge from China’s statistics bureau and logistics federation dropped to 54.6 in December. Inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 125,654 tons this week, the lowest in almost a year, according to data. Orders to remove copper from LME warehouses dropped the most since August to 235,100 tons. Copper stocks in LME-monitored warehouses are at the lowest level since January 2013. Cancelled warrants on the LME now account for about 65 percent of total stocks, so inventories on hand are actually less than the headline figure implies.
Silver rose as anticipation that two widely watched commodity indexes will drive more money to gold and silver buoyed prices of the precious metals
Markets are looking towards a slew of data this week, including U.S. nonfarm payrolls and trade numbers, to gauge the strength of economic recovery
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.49% i.e. 49.15 tonnes to 9909.49 tonnes from 9958.64 tonnes. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R2
COPPER	3.3378	3.3206	3.3798	3.4046

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in February traded at USD94.12 a barrel, up 0.16%.
Earlier on Friday, New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD93.38 a barrel. During last week, crude futures dropped 6%.
On Thursday, crude futures tumbled 3% to settle at USD95.44 a barrel on the Nymex. It was the sharpest one-day decline since early November 2012.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation said Thursday that exports could soon return to near normal levels after political protesters agreed to stop months of blockages. Libyan oil production has fallen sharply since July with protesters disrupting output at many of the country’s oilfields.

Expectations for increased exports from South Sudan also weighed.
In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration said Thursday that crude oil inventories fell by 7.01 million barrels in the previous week, far surpassing market expectations for a decline of 2.98 million barrels.
Crude oil futures rose during the Asian session on Monday as they recovered from last week’s fall, which was caused by rising production in the U.S. and an increase in international supplies
Crude oil dropped as the market braced for rising Libyan output, while soft Chinese service-sector data softened demand.
The U.S. EIA reported in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.01 million barrels in the week last week
Expectations for increased exports from South Sudan also nudged prices lower. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R2
CRUDE	93.30	92.64	95.18	96.40

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

  

Global Economic Data

TIME:IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.9	54.6	STRONG
8.30P.M	Factory Orders m/m	-0.9%	1.8%	MEDIUM

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 5, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Source changed series from unadjusted to seasonally adjusted as of January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2008;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

Factory Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 4, 2014
FF Notes	This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

FOMC Member Stein Speaks

Description	Due to deliver a speech titled "Banks as Patient Debt Investors" at the American Economic Association Conference, in Philadelphia;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member May 2012 - Jan 2018;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

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'COMEX' Commodity Technical Outlook

SILVER

Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.41/19.46. It declined to a low of 18.72/18.77 and then spiked to a high of 19.82/19.87 on thinly traded volumes before concluding the session at 19.36/19.41.

Silver had a rough day trading to fresh 6 month lows toward 18.75 before bouncing to close at 19.39. Silver has fallen 36% YOY and still looks like risk is toward our 2013 low of 18.26. The ability to hold this level will be key moving forward as a break opens the 2010 low of 14.68. 

The gold-silver ratio is closing at 61.93. We would expect the 60.00 to 64.00 range to hold for the near future.

Silver yesterday settled flat at 43876 as major exchanges where closed yesterday on New Year holiday

The Conference Board reported earlier that its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to 78.1 in December from 72.0 in November

The Fed has rolled out multiple rounds of bond purchase since the 2008 financial crisis.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.32	19.03	20.41	20.99

Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD 

Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1196.50/1197.50. It declined to a low of 1182.00/1183.00 while global equities traded near 6-year highs as investors moved away from safe-haven assets on expectations of a strong economic recovery in 2014 and rising benchmark bond yields combined with rising consumer confidence in the U.S. The metal then rose to a session high of 1214.00/1215.00 on low year-end volumes as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. Thereafter, it traded within range for the rest of the afternoon to finally close at 1203.00/1204.00.

Gold is closing today largely unchanged from yesterday despite having a large range. The metal took a run at the 2013 lows today but fell $2 short at 1182. The failure trade resulted in a $30 bounce to 1213. It has been a bad year for Gold falling -28% YOY. This is the first down year after 12 consecutive years of gains. From a price perspective, the down side in the metal remains vulnerable with $1,087 the 50% of our 12 year range the next massive support.

Gold settled flat at 28418 as all major exchanges in all regions where closed for the New Year.

Gold tumbled in 2013, with Fed’s plan to step away from ultra-loose monetary policy undermining the investor rationale for holding bullion.

Investors had largely shrugged off industry data revealing that the Chicago purchasing managers’ index fell to a seasonally adjusted 59.1.

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R2
GOLD	1192	1181	1231	1249

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.384 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.05%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.376 a pound and USD3.391 a pound.

Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.368 a pound, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD3.431 a pound, the high from December 24. The March contract settled 0.07% lower on Monday to end at USD3.382 a pound.

Market players looked ahead to U.S. data on consumer confidence and manufacturing activity in the Chicago region later in the day, to gauge if the U.S. economy will be strong enough to allow the Fed to continue withdrawing support through 2014.

Copper futures were little changed on the final trading day of the year on Tuesday, with volumes expected to remain light as many investors already closed books before the end of the year.

Copper settled flat as trading was light as there was no major news and most investors were celebrating the New Year.

Growth in China’s factories slowed slightly in December as export orders and output weakened, official data showed

Dallas Fed service sector index rose to 12.5 in December, but December Chicago PMI was 59.1, falling more sharply than market expectations.

Technical Levels

	S1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.3726	3.3488	3.4141	3.4318

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for February delivery rose by 0.31% while trading at USD 98.73 a barrel.
It earlier traded at a session high USD 98.77 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD 99.06 and resistance at USD100.75.

Expectations for Libyan oil exports to resume to near normal levels sent prices falling Tuesday due to the added supply they'd bring to the global market.
Libyan oil operations faced glitches recently due to protesters disrupting production at various oilfields.Expectations for increased exports from South Sudan also nudged prices lower.
Trading volumes were thin as many investors already closed books before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing volatility, which helped exaggerate market moves.

Crude oil futures were higher during the Asian session on Thursday to start the New Year with exports from Libya a continued focus along with strife in South Sudan.

Crude oil nudged higher recovering some losses despite signs the Chinese economy lost some steam late last year.

Bumpy progress on resuming oil production in war-disrupted regions of Africa and the Middle East has been a recent factor in trading.

Crude oil inventories will release on Friday at 9.30pm as US market was closed on Wednesday. Expected inventory is -2.3M.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	97.91	96.67	99.89	100.39

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	338K	334K	STRONG
7.00P.M	ISM Manufacturing PMI	57.3	56.8	STRONG

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 9, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 3, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand	The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

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Commodity Technical Outlook: COMEX

GOLD

Gold dropped lower overnight to open at 1203.50/1204.50. It briefly touched a high of 1208.00/1209.00 as the Euro strengthened against the Dollar. It then declined to a low of 1203.00/1204.00 following strong U.S. data that pointed to an increase in pending home sales and factory activity while global equities climbed to a six-year high. Quiet trading in the afternoon led the metal to close at 1204.00/1205.00. 

Gold is weaker today at 1204. The metal had been drifting higher the past week in a move that started at 1188 and ended Friday at 1218. We see key down side support at 1181 and topside resistance at 1222, which is the top of a bearish two-month channel. Big picture: the metal is closing out 2013 at the lower end of this year’s range of 1181 to 1795. The risk remains to the down side.

Gold settled down tracking Comex Gold which settled under $1,200 as a willingness to take on more risk and the prospect of a global recovery

Expectations that the U.S. economy will improve and the rest of the world’s growth will stabilise in 2014, have further undermined the case for holding bullion

Holdings on SPDR Gold Trust fell three tonnes on Friday to their lowest since Jan. 2009 at 801.2 tonnes.

Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold and silver in the week to Dec. 24, data from the CFTC showed on Monday. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1192	1181	1215	1226

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER

Silver followed gold lower overnight to open at 19.59/19.64. It touched a low of 19.55/19.60 shortly after the open and then climbed to a high of 19.74/19.79 before closing the session at 19.61/19.66.

Silver is lower today at 19.66. Silver had been moving higher in recent trading from 19.15 to 20.19. The price action of the past month has been overall sideways with key levels seen at 18.91 and 20.47. Silver has had a rough 12 months falling from January high of 32.46 to July low of 18.26.

The Gold Silver ratio has spiked higher today from 60.23 to 61.25. We see resistance at 61.86 from a declining trend line.

Silver down after investors shrugged off soft U.S. housing figures and sold on concerns years of support from the Federal Reserve

Some market participants believe the Fed will likely reduce its bond purchases by USD10 billion in each of its next seven meetings

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.90 tonnes to 9958.64 tonnes from 10009.54 tonnes.

Volumes remained light with year-end positioning and profit-taking driving flows. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.32	19.03	20.04	20.47

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.389 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.1%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.372 a pound and USD3.391 a pound.
The March contract settled 0.4% lower on Friday to end at USD3.385 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.368 a pound, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD3.431 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.
Volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, with year-end positioning and profit-taking driving flows.
Copper prices have been well-supported in recent weeks amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is deepening. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.

Copper futures were little changed near last week’s four-month high in subdued trade on Monday, as market players looked ahead to U.S. pending home sales data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

Copper little changed as market players looked ahead to U.S. pending home sales data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

Copper prices have been well-supported in recent weeks amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is deepening.

Copper production in the January-to-November period increased 6.5 percent to roughly 5.3 million tonnes, the INE added.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 367450mt that is down by -3500mt.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3720	3.3611	3.3928	3.4031

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.34 a barrel at time of writing rising 0.05%.

It earlier traded at a session high USD99.39 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD99.06 and resistance at USD100.75.
US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.01% to trade at USD80.16.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery rose 0.03% to trade at USD111.27 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD11.93 a barrel.

Crude oil futures were higher during the Asian session on Tuesday.

Crude oil settled down after disappointing U.S. home sales figures sparked concerns that the U.S. economy continues to battle potholes on its road to recovery.

Support seen as data showed that U.S. total fuel demand hit a 26-month high in October while a key Libyan oil export port remained shut.

Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. crude is set for an annual gain of 8% in 2013, after falling about 7 per cent in 2012.

“OPEC oil ministers who claimed that there would not be any surpluses on the crude oil markets next year.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	98.80	98.32	100.09	100.90

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Global Economic Data

Date: 31/12/2013
TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.30P.M	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	13.3%	13.4%	MEDIUM
8.15P.M	Chicago PMI	63.0	61.3	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	CB Consumer Confidence	70.4	76.5	STRONG

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

Source	Standard & Poor's (latest release)
Measures	Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 28, 2014
FF Notes	This is one of the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the primary calculation for this indicator;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acro Expand	Standard & Poor's (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
Source	Standard & Poor's (latest release)

Chicago PMI

Source	MNI (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release	Jan 31, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to MNI subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of around 200 purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Chicago Business Barometer;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

CB Consumer Confidence

Source	The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release	Jan 28, 2014
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation;
Acro Expand	The Conference Board (CB);

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COMEX: Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at the session low of  1210.00/1211.00. The metal then climbed to a high of  1218.75/1219.75 on low volumes as the Euro appreciated against  the Dollar and major world equities rallied while U.S. government  bond yields rose to a two-and-a-half year high of 3.02 percent,  which is indicative of an improving economy and supports  expectations that the Fed will continue with tapering of its  monthly bond buying program. Quiet trading in the afternoon led  the metal to close at 1214.50/1215.50.

Gold closed slightly higher on the week at 1214; the metal has  been alternating between lower and higher weekly closes for the  past eight weeks. However, the down candles have been stronger  than the up ones, taking us from 1361 in early November to a low  of 1187. The major low of 1180 is likely to be tested. From an  Elliott Wave perspective, we feel we are in Wave C, the last wave  of the corrective 3-wave sequence off the 1921 high in September  2011. Possible targets for Wave C are 1155, which is the 61.8%  retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend; or 1044, which is the  bottom of Wave 4 of this same uptrend. RSI is at 35.2, with  support just above 20, thus gold has further to go before it  reaches ‘oversold’ levels.
Gold settled flat as prices recovered from lows on the back of increased physical demand.
Expectations that the U.S. economy can stand on its own as monetary stimulus is withdrawn were buoyed by data showing a decrease in weekly jobless claims
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.00 tonnes to 801.22 tonnes from 804.22 tonnes. 
Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
GOLD	1205	1200	1218	1221

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

 
SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.88/19.93, which was  also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.09/20.14  prior to concluding the session at 20.00/20.05.
Silver closed higher this week at 20.05, trading inside of last  week’s range. Support is at 18.23 from the 2013 low. The trend  remains bearish, and a test of this level is likely. There is resistance  from the weekly downtrend off the August 2013 high, which  currently comes in at 21.30.
Silver ended with gains amid short covering after the dollar retreated further but remained on track for its annual loss as rallies in equities dented its appeal.
Gains were limited on sentiments that Fed’s plans to trim USD10 billion in monthly bond purchases in January will lead to further cuts to the stimulus program.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.90 tonnes to 9958.64 tonnes from 10009.54 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
SILVER	19.70	19.55	20.04	20.27

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

Copper settled down -0.38% at 468.2 on profit booking after gaining due to tightening supplies and expectations that economic recovery in China will help boost demand. China’s economic growth is likely to come in at 7.6 percent this year, according to a cabinet report, just above the government’s target of 7.5 percent and slightly below last year’s 7.7 percent. Its industrial output is likely to grow by about 9.8 percent in 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said.

Buying in China is expected to wind down during the Lunar New Year holidays in January. Also supporting copper prices has been a lack of readily available metal due to falling exchange stocks. The latest LME data showed copper stocks in exchange-registered warehouses dropped to their lowest since January at 370,950 tonnes. Still, ample copper concentrate seen flowing into the market next year will eventually feed into more stocks of refined copper, swelling supply and overhanging prices.
Copper dropped on profit booking after gaining due to tightening supplies and expectations that economic recovery in China will help boost demand.
State Reserves Bureau (SRB) is working on plans to buy about 300,000 tonnes of copper
Buying in China is expected to wind down during the Lunar New Year holidays in January.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
COPPER	3.4346	3.3993	3.4876	3.5053

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.77% on Friday to settle the week at USD100.32 a barrel by close of trade. U.S. oil prices rose to a session high of USD100.75 a barrel earlier, the strongest level since October 21.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.05 a barrel, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD101.22 a barrel, the high from October 21.
The February contract settled 0.33% higher on Thursday to end at USD99.55 a barrel. On the week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, rose 0.99%.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report released Friday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels in the week ended December 20, compared to expectations for a decline of 2.3 million barrels.
New York-traded crude oil futures ended the week at a nine-week high on Friday, climbing above the key USD100-a-barrel level after government data showed that U.S. oil supplies fell more-than-expected last week.
Crude gained driven by the fourth straight weekly decline in oil inventories and also drew support from civil unrest in Africa that has cut off supplies.
EIA said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -4.731M, from -2.941M in the preceding month.
US crude stocks fall even as output hits 1988 high –EIA
Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
CRUDE	99.54	98.78	100.90	101.52

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

DATE	30.12.13
TIME :IST	8.30P.M
DATA	Pending Home Sales m/m
PRV	-0.6%
EXP	1.1%
IMPACT	STRONG

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

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Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE

GOLD
Gold edged higher overnight to open at 1201.00/1202.00. It  dropped slightly to a low of 1200.00/1201.00 before climbing to a  high of 1205.50/1206.50 on low volumes ahead of Christmas as  positive U.S. data pointed to an increase in sales of durable goods  while the monthly home price index increased slightly. The metal  traded within range for the rest of the day before finally closing at  1204.00/1205.00.
Gold closed higher today at 1204, reversing yesterday’s losses. The  metal remains in a bearish trend, support is at the major low of  1180, with resistance at the high from Thursday, December 19th  around 1227. The last signal in MACD on the daily chart was a sell  signal on December 19th.
Gold rose as bearish traders continued to leave the market ahead of the year’s end and a weaker dollar burnished gold’s allure to foreign buyers.
Gold set for its biggest annual loss in three decades as investors switch to rallying equities on optimism about a global economic recovery.
SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings declined 0.19 percent to 804.22 tonnes on Thursday from 805.72 tonnes on Tuesday.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1208	1203	1217	1221

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver remained unchanged overnight to open at 19.40/19.45,  which was also the low of the day. Thereafter, it followed gold to a  high of 19.55/19.60 before concluding the day at 19.52/19.57.
Silver closed very slightly higher at 19.52, grinding out three days  of small gains, but all inside the range from December 19th. This is  not indicative of bullish price action, and we expect the metal to  retest the major low of 18.90, followed by a test of the 18.22 low  from June. Resistance is at the December 19th high around 19.92.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 61.74. Support is  at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the July-August downtrend.  Resistance is at 62.28, the 50% retracement level
Silver rose after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell more-than-expected.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a month, a hopeful sign for the labour market
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended December 14 rose to 2.923 million from 2.877 million in the preceding week.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.82	19.71	20.04	20.27

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.375 a pound during U.S. morning trade, flat on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.368 a pound and USD3.375 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.304 a pound, the low from December 24 and resistance at USD3.420 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.

The March contract surged to an eight-month high of USD3.420 a pound on Tuesday, before settling at USD3.374 a pound, up 2.01%.
Copper futures were little changed in subdued trade on Thursday, with volumes expected to remain light as holidays in many countries limit activity.
Copper rose on growing confidence about the global economy, year-end covering and the prospect of purchases from China’s state reserves.
Strong U.S. economic data and a bullish growth forecast for China, fuelled hopes about stronger demand for copper and other industrial metals.
Japan’s output of rolled copper product rose to 67,751 tonnes in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.4298	3.4101	3.4590	3.4690

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.39 a barrel at time of writing falling 0.16%.
It earlier traded at a session low USD99.38 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD98.53 and resistance at USD99.76.

US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.18% to trade at USD80.52.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD111.70 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD12.31 a barrel..
Crude oil futures were lower in Asian trading hours on Friday.
Crude oil gained boosted by demand for refined products after industry data earlier this week showed a steep decline in gasoline and distillate inventories.
Supply outages in Africa are also in focus and added some geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -1.9M PREV: -2.9M. Actual is at 9.30PM.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	99.20	98.78	99.81	100.46

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
9.30P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	-2.9m	-1.9m	MEDIUM

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 3, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);

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