COMEX Report Of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.

Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.

SILVER

Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. 

This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.

Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.

Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.

Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.

Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.

Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1353	1336	1379	1388
SILVER	21.07	20.68	21.45	21.83
COPPER	2.9923	2.9586	3.0533	3.1183
CRUDE	97.16	96.33	99.21	101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.2%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	323K	334K	STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called	Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders Care	It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called	Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

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STI Daily Technical Analysis View

Market Review:

Today the STI gave a gap down opening by 16 points 3113.41 with the volume of 135.6Million. Today complete red candle was formed for the day with a gap down from the previous day candle and made a Star Position.

Further STI made the Marubozu Pattern that shows the open is close to the high & the close is near to the low of the day.

STI Day Performance
Open	3113.41
High	3115.21
Low	3097.43
Close	3097.43
Change(Points)	-29.7
% Change	-0.949
Volume	1897.4M
Rise	166
Fall	236
Unch	656

Market forecast:

As STI formed inverted hammer yesterday , on the back of this STI opens with gap down and traded lower side whole day and formed bearish candlestick pattern.

Today STI gives a signal to bearish cross over between  its 50 & 20 day EMAs here 20 day EMA level now flat @ 3099.02 and 50 day EMA @ 3096,  flat  direction of shorter period EMA could be reverse and will give bearish cross over if STI will continue the same bearish.

Support level:

STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3135 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3160

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3120
Support 2	3105
Support 3	3090
Resistance 1	3135
Resistance 2	3145
Resistance 3	3160

Technical indicators:

With the recovery now Technical indicators MACD trading in bullish zone in Daily chart , RSI trading above @50.77 near to centreline and CCI crossed its +100 mark @ 24.41

Important Factor for today:-

• SGX announced today that it is coming with the new set of Asian currency futures to expand its suite of foreign exchange future (FX) & launching options on china A50 futures, as this will be available in the 3Q 2014
• Singapore largest retail warehouse store Big Box is set to open its doors in the 4Q2014
• A good boom is expected for this FY in Offshore RMB bond issuance by a strong policy support, continued cash crunch in the mainland and a huge amount of refinancing expected this year.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
DairyFarm 900	9.370	2.741	JMH 400US	59.040	-1.600
Creative 50	2.550	2.823	JSH 500US	33.600	-2.665
Goodpack	2.010	3.608	UOB	20.040	-2.053
SATS	3.060	2.000	Jardine C&C	39.110	-1.012
ManhattanRes	0.505	12.222	SIA	10.200	-1.923

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COMEX Report Of Technical analysis

GOLD

Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50. 

Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.

Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.

Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.

The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.

China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.

The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.

NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.

Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.

Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.

Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.

Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China's February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.

The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's second biggest oil consumer.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world's top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1325	1312	1352	1365
SILVER	20.59	20.28	21.37	21.84
COPPER	3.1115	3.0665	3.2365	3.3165
CRUDE	101.79	100.45	103.13	103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
4.45P.M	FOMC Member Plosser Speaks			MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description	Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism" at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

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STI Daily Technical Analysis Report

Market Review:

Today as the third trading session of the week the market still maintain the uptrend and the investor also looks seems to be positive for this, which can be observed by the volume in the market.

STI opened high at 3113.15 around 7 points up and closed high at 3116.04, ending the session with a green candle.

STI Day Performance
Open	3078.29
High	3116.64
Low	3067.24
Close	3116.64
Change(Points)	-16.71
% Change	-0.539
Volume	2105.2
Rise	211
Fall	205
Unch	380

Market forecast:

STI recovers for 3rd straight day and traded above 3105 level, however the trading range was very low for the day it was only 8 points after gap up opening.

STI trading well above its 50 & 20 day EMA level of 3090 & 3083 level, it’s a positive sign for STI, 20 day EMA is continuously increasing and trading very near to its 50 day EMA . we can expect crossover of longer period from lower side by short period i.e 20 day EMA, can cross 50 Day EMA from lower side which is positive sign for Index , if it will happen then we can see more bullishness in Index.

As we previously mention for coming days we see some turn around movements as the 4Q13 earnings season is heading towards the end, and investors’ attention to key economic events in the US such as Unemployment Rate and Non-farm Payroll.

Support level: STI having immediate support @ 3095 level and below this level it can take support @3080-3065 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance: STI having immediate Resistance @3120 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3135-3150

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3095
Support 2	3080
Support 3	3065
Resistance 1	3120
Resistance 2	3135
Resistance 3	3150

Technical indicators: With the recovery now Technical indicators MACD trading in bullish zone in Daily chart , RSI crossed its centreline zone and trading above 50 @ 59.9 and CCI @ 90.999

Important Factor for today:-

• Securities were trading down by 7% in Feb Where as STI said today that the security trading fell by 35% to S$20.9Billion. Daily average value of trading fell 41% to S$1Billion as more trading session in Feb2013.
• Loyz Energy to buy 20% of Norwegian oil and gas firm
• Today Ezara Holding is awarded subsea construction and offshore support contracts and options in Asia Pacific and West Africa worth over US$125 million.
• Amtek buys US firm in S$267M deal.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
JMH 400US	60.000	3.448	UOB	20.530	-1.203
JSH 500US	34.660	3.155	DairyFarm 900	9.020	-1.313
Jardine C&C	40.000	2.564	DBS	16.210	-0.735
OSIM	2.510	4.583	Shang Asia	12.880	-0.923
SIA	10.240	0.887	GreatEast	17.980	-0.333

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Daily COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1346.00/1347.00 following mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It dipped briefly to a low of 1344.25/1345.25 before surging to a four-month high of 1354.25/1355.25 as oil and safe-haven currencies reported gains while global equities retreated in face of the impending crisis in Ukraine. The metal closed the day at 1350.00/1351.00.

Gold had a very strong close today, ending the session at 1351 and clearly trading through resistance in the 1337 area. This opens up a full retracement to the 1433 high from August 2013. Resistance is at the most recent high of 1361 from October 2013. There is support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 1310.
Gold gained as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia bolstered demand for assets perceived to be relatively safe, hitting riskier investments such as equities.
A recent series of weak U.S. data that showed how much a cold snap has hurt activity in US, coupled with signs of a growth slowdown in China, boosted gold prices
A U.S. Non farm payrolls report on Friday should give investors a further opportunity to gauge the country’s growth.
SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at 21.43/21.48. It dropped to a low of 21.39/21.44 before following gold to a high of 21.63/21.68 and then coming under selling pressure to close near opening levels at 21.48/21.53.
Silver had a small move higher today at 21.48, but is still in consolidation mode. The price action since the big up-move on February 14th has been disappointing. Support is at the 200-daymoving average of 20.98, followed by the top of the previous range, 20.64. Resistance is at the recent high of 22.17.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 63.07. It has will be key. Confirmation of today’s down move would open up the moved back into its previous uptrend after a false break lower in February. Uptrend support comes in at 63.07. We are neutral.
Silver rallied tracking gold prices as the chance of military conflict in Ukraine mounted following Russia’s seizing of control of the Crimean peninsula.
The Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.35% i.e. 35.89 tonnes to 10168.47 tonnes from 10204.36 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $3.160 a pound, the weakest since November 21.
Copper prices last traded at $3.169 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.6%. The May copper contract lost 0.42% on Friday to settle at $3.187 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.146 a pound, the low from November 21 and resistance at $3.212 a pound, the high from February 28.
Geopolitical tensions mounted over the weekend after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Sunday that his country was “on the brink of disaster” after Russia’s parliament authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force in Ukraine.
Ukraine has put its forces on combat readiness and U.S. President Barack Obama warned Russia not to intervene. The U.S. is also considering imposing sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
Meanwhile, lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment.
Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since November on Monday, as tension in the Ukraine flared over the weekend and amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at 104.82 a barrel, down 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of $103.36 a barrel and a high of $105.22 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $2.13, or 2%, to $111.20 a barrel.

Russia, the world’s biggest oil producer, sent troops into Crimea, a peninsula in Ukraine. The move stoked fears that there could be a disruption in supply in both crude and refined oil products.
Also supporting crude, the Commerce Department on Monday reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Personal spending for December was revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.4%.
The report added that personal income rose 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a flat reading in December.
Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which is stripped of food and energy items, inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in December.
The core PCE price index rose at an annualized rate of 1.2%, above forecasts for a 1.1% increase, after rising at a rate of 1.1% in December.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1335	1321	1360	1369
SILVER	21.28	21.12	21.64	21.84
COPPER	3.2030	3.1855	3.2425	3.2665
CRUDE	103.50	102.09	105.77	106.63

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	44.9	45.6	LOW

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 2, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;
Acro Expand	Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);

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COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

 Gold remained relatively unchanged overnight, opening at the intraday high of 1332.75/1333.75. It declined steadily as a string of mostly positive U.S. economic data showed a rise in pending home sales and consumer spending. The S&P hit a record high as the metal continued its decline to close at the day’s low of 1320.50/1321.50. After the close, the metal moved higher following news that Russia landed troops at a military air base in Ukraine.
Gold closed slightly lower this week at 

1321, after three successive weeks higher. The weekly chart looks bullish, having formed a bottom at 1182 in December, and reaching an intra week high in the 1345 area. Support is at 1301-1308, which forms a Fibonacci convergence zone. The Fibonacci levels represent the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend and the 50% retracement of the September to December downtrend (at 1308). Resistance is at 1361, the high from November 2013. RSI is confirming the trend higher, and the last signal in MACD in the weekly chart was a buy. Lastly, the Positive Directional Movement Index (DMI) line crossed bullishly through the Negative DMI line.

 Gold settled flat as U.S. equities climbed, but yellow metal still posted monthly gain as persistent concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy boosted prices.

 Data showed the U.S. government slashed its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth in the latest sign of a loss of momentum

 Gold gained in February mostly due to signs of economic weakness in China and the United States as well as political and economic turmoil in Ukraine.

 SILVER

 Silver opened at the session high of 21.36/21.41, remaining mostly unchanged overnight. It followed gold’s decline to close at the session low of 21.20/21.25.

 Silver closed lower at 21.20, after three up weeks. There is a downtrend off the April 2011 high, which currently comes in at 22.33. RSI also failed just above resistance in the 53 area, currently at 50.78. We will need to see a break up through 22.33 to attract more buyers. Support is at the lows of the recent consolidation in the 18.80 level.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 62.53, after making a false break lower through its trend line last week. The new, re-drawn uptrend currently comes in at 61.37. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.24.

Silver settled down after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the bank will continue tapering its monthly bond purchases

Prices seen pressure with investors opting for the riskier equity assets after a couple of encouraging economic data from the U.S. with consumer sentiment rising

Report showed the U.S. economy to have grown much less than initially indicated in the fourth quarter of 2013.

 COPPER

Copper settled down -0.55% as lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment. Investors were pondering improvement in the consumer confidence index and government officials’ remarks on the Ukraine crisis.

The US Commerce Department announced Friday that the 4Q GDP growth for the country was revised to 2.4% QoQ, lower than estimate and Q3’s growth. The figure raised speculations that the Fed may possibly suspend QE taper. In the euro zone, inflation remained stable, cooling expectation for monetary easing by the European Central Bank.

 In this context, the US dollar index fell to 79.772, help LME copper prices pare declines and finish at USD 7,012.3/mt, down USD 18.5/mt. In the US, GDP growth for Q4 2013 was revised down to 2.4%, missing the 2.5% forecast.

 In other vital news, political crisis in Ukraine continued to upgrade. Russia’s parliament has approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for Russian forces to be used in Ukraine “until the normalisation of the political situation in the country”.

 US President Barack Obama warned Russia that it should rethink its military intervention in Ukraine, and US government officials said Obama is considering not attending June’s G8 Summit in Sochi, Russia, and reassessing economic relations between US and Russia. In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for an indication of the strength of the recovery in the labor market and the future course of monetary policy.

 CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at 103.77, up 1.15%, on the risk of military conflict in the Ukraine and possibility of continued cold weather in the United States.

Last week, crude futures for April settled up 0.19%, or $0.19 cents, to end the week at $102.59 a barrel.

Oil’s gains came as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro on Friday after data showed that the annual rate of consumer inflation in the euro zone rose by a more-than-expected 0.8% in February, dampening speculation the European Central Bank will add to stimulus at its upcoming policy meeting.

 Meanwhile, forecasts for freezing temperatures across most parts of the central and northeast U.S. over the next couple of weeks boosted prices as well.

 Gains last week however were limited after the Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.

 The disappointing data added to concerns that the economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

 Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.

 Crude oil prices gained in Asian trade on Monday as tension between Russia and the West over the Ukraine lifted risk assets broadly.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1316	1318	1345	1354
SILVER	21.03	20.76	21.54	21.69
COPPER	3.2253	3.2121	3.2528	3.2670
CRUDE	101.94	101.29	103.10	104.26

Global Economic Data

	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
7.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.2%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	ISM Manufacturing PMI	51.3	52.3	STRONG

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales, which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier;
Why Traders Care	Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy;
Also Called	Consumer Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures;

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 1, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand	The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

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