GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold retreated overnight to open at 1292.50/1293.50. It climbed to a high of 1299.50/1300.5 on concerns of tougher sanctions on Russia by the West despite a decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. The metal then declined to a six-week low of 1292.00/1293.00 on dollar strength and speculation that U.S. interest rates will rise sooner than expected. Thereafter, it consolidated to close the day at 1293.50/1294.50.
Gold ended the session at 1294, closing below the 200 day MA at 1296 as it approaches the 50% Fibo retracement level (1287.45) of the 2014 rally to mid-March. Subsequent downside levels include the 100 day MA at 1272 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 1262.70. Resistance is expected at 1308 the March 24th close.
The Labor Department said the number of people who filed for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
The upbeat data added to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.
Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% gain.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 19.64/19.69. After a brief high at 19.74/19.79, it declined to a low of 19.60/19.65, prior to concluding the session at 19.70/19.75.
Silver closed at 19.73. The bearish trend in silver remains intact as the decline approaches the December 31st low at 18.8266. There are no key support levels ahead of the December 31st low.
The gold silver ratio has formed an engulfing bearish reversal; closing at 65.56, below yesterday’s open despite initially trading on an upswing. The upward sloping resistance trend line from the December and February highs has held, highlighting a challenge to further gains. Looking to the downside, the next key levels of support would be expected at 64.50 and 63.80.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $2.986 a pound, before trimming gains to last trade at $2.978 during European morning hours, up 0.4%, or 1.2 cents.
Copper lost 1.33%, or 4.0 cents, on Wednesday to settle at $2.965 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.
The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.
Upbeat U.S. durable goods orders figures on Wednesday indicated that economy is gaining momentum in the wake of a weather-induced slowdown.
Meanwhile, in China, data released earlier showed mainland China industrial profits increased 9.4% in the two months through February year-on-year, compared with 17% growth a year earlier.
The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices regained strength on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy..
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $101.35 a barrel, up 0.07%. On Thursday it reached the highest settlement price since March 7, after hitting an overnight session low of $100.04 a barrel and a high of $101.69 a barrel.

Brent oil on the ICE futures exchange rose 80 cents, or 0.8%, to $107.83 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since March 14.
Oil prices shot up after the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 2.6% in the final three months of 2013, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.4%. Market expectations had been for an upward revision to 2.7%.
Still, the report showed that personal spending was revised up to 3.3% from 2.6% initially, the fastest rate of growth in three years, which drew applause from investors betting that sluggish economic indicators hitting the wire earlier this year were the result of rough winter weather that disrupted commerce and not due to an economic soft patch.
Separately, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000.
Analysts were expecting jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
Also supporting both U.S. and European crude blends were concerns the U.S. and Europe may stiffen sanctions on crude-rich Russia and subsequently threaten global oil supply.
Crude oil prices gained slightly in Asia on Friday on a carryover from overnight better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and weekly jobless claims data.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1287	1279	1305	1315
SILVER	19.52	19.37	19.84	20.01
COPPER	3.0165	2.9965	3.0465	3.0565
CRUDE	100.30	99.33	101.97	102.67

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.3%	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	79.9	80.6	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	3.2%		LOW

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	May 1, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 25, 2014
FF Notes	The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

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GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged slightly higher overnight to open at 1313.50/1314.50, which was also the intraday high. Following the open it dipped to a low of 1300.25/1301.25 as the dollar strengthened and equities gained momentum following better-than-expected U.S. economic data that showed an increase in sales of durable goods. The slide in gold prices was also attributed to easing of tensions between Russia and the West, which suppressed demand for safe haven assets. The metal closed the day at 1302.50/1303.50.

Gold traded lower today, closing at 1302 and coming dangerously close to the 200-day moving average at 1296. A close below that level would be our stop-loss on our long-term bullish gold view. Resistance is at 1316/17, the high of the past two sessions.

Gold fell as encouraging U.S. manufacturing data reduced bullion’s appeal to institutional investors as a hedge against economic uncertainty

U.S. Federal Janet Yellen suggested interest rates could rise in the first half of 2015, raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.80 tonnes i.e. 0.22% to 816.97 tonnes from 818.77 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver was mostly unchanged overnight, opening at 19.97/20.02. It briefly climbed to a high of 20.01/20.06 before retreating on the back of gold to a low of 19.73/19.78, prior to concluding the session below the $20 mark at 19.76/19.81.

Silver had a bearish close today, closing lower at 19.76. We are bearish silver, looking for a test of the base of the consolidation that has been in place since early December, around the 18.83 low.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 65.90. There is support at 65.02, the 76.4% retracement of the last downtrend in the ratio from 67.47 high to 57.09 low. Uptrend support comes in at 62.99. We are bullish the ratio, targeting a test of the double top in the 67.50 area.

Silver prices dropped after official data showed that U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods came in higher-than-forecast in February.

Prices has been under heavy selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% last month, snapping two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.982 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.985 during European morning hours, down 0.68%, or 2.0 cents.

Copper rallied to $3.045 a pound on Tuesday, the most since March 11, before settling at $3.005 a pound, up 2.04%, or 6.0 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders later in the session.

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved more than expected in March. However, a separate report said that new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating continued weakness in the housing sector.

Copper rallied on Tuesday amid growing hopes that China will unveil fresh stimulus measures to boost slowing economic growth.

Data released on Monday showed that Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated for a third successive month in March.

The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

Copper prices fell from the previous session’s two-week high on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $100.32 a barrel, up 0.05%, after hitting an overnight session low of $99.11 a barrel and a high of $100.13 a barrel.

Prices for the global Brent oil futures contract rose four cents to settle at $107.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices firmed after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% in February, wiping out two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1.0% increase.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, inched up 0.2%, slightly below forecasts for a 0.3% gain.

The numbers fueled expectations for a more sustained pickup in the U.S. economy, which should hike demand for more fuel and energy.

Weekly inventory data gave oil prices a boost as well.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21, above expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.

The EIA also reported a 1.3 million barrel draw at a delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, which was larger expected and eclipsed the otherwise bearish 6.6 million-barrel build.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 382.5 million barrels as of last week.

Crude oil prices edged slightly higher in Asia on Thursday from a morning drop that followed overnight gains on better-than-expected reports on U.S. durable goods and oil inventories.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1296	1288	1314	1324
SILVER	19.67	19.59	20.08	20.16
COPPER	2.9930	2.9755	3.0380	3.0830
CRUDE	99.42	98.58	100.78	101.30

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	320k	326k	STRONG
6.00P.M	FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks	—	—	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Final GDP q/q	2.4%	2.7%	MEDIUM
7.30P.M	Pending Home Sales m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Apr 3, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Final GDP q/q

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Preliminary release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health;

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 28, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

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COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold climbed higher overnight to open at 1338.00/1339.00. It moved up marginally to a high of 1339.25/1340.25 as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. The metal then declined to a low of 1333.00/1334.00 as global equities rebounded with the S&P setting a new intra-day high. It traded within range for most of the day to close at 1335.00/1336.00.

Gold had a bearish outside week, closing lower at 1335 and completely retracing last week’s gains. This is a potential reversal warning. The support level to watch is 1312, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 uptrend. We have been bullish, but would revisit our view should 1312 be broken to the downside. Resistance is at the weekly high of 1392. Gold recovered its losses to settle flat as the dollar edged lower, though the market posted weekly drop following the Fed’s latest meet. An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold. SPDR gold trust holding gained by 4.19 tonnes i.e. 0.52% to 816.97 tonnes from 812.78 tonnes.

 SILVER

Silver was relatively unchanged overnight, opening at 20.41/20.46. It rose to a high of 20.45/20.50 before following gold lower to close at the session low of 20.28/20.33.

Silver had a bearish week, closing at 20.28. The metal continues to trade under the downtrend that has been in place since April 2011. Support is at the base of the consolidation that has been in place since June 2013, at the 18.20 level. We are neutral while silver continues to trade within this consolidation range. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 65.79. It is well supported from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.89. Resistance is at the double top in the 67.47 to 67.56 area. Silver remained under pressure as the dollar firmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015. The central bank said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by an additional $10 billion to a total of $55 billion a month. The Fed also updated its forward guidance, discarding the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering when to increase borrowing costs.

 COPPER

On the week, Comex copper prices ended down 0.02%, as ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

  Attention now shifts to the release of HSBC’s March China Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,965 contracts as of last week, up 24.5% from net shorts of 10,473 in the preceding week. Copper settled flat due to the weak outlook toward Chinese growth and lack of key market movers China’s copper market will see a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2014 through a rise in copper production as imports surpass growth. A stronger RMB which eased concerns over China’s copper demand was also behind the higher copper prices.

 CRUDE

The HSBC data for March showed a drop to 48.1, compared to a forecast of 48.7 expected and to a final of 48.5 for the previous month. A figure below 50 implies contraction with the the latest number part of a string of disappointing China data suggesting a deepening economic slowdown at the start of 2014. “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China’s growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly based with domestic demand softening further,” said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

“We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower.” On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $99.20 a barrel Crude Oil, down 0.26%. Crude oil settled 0.57% higher, or 56 cents, at $99.46 a barrel, last week on speculation over the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and amid indications the U.S. economy is improving. Investors continued to monitor events in the Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have underpinned prices. The political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia. Crude oil prices stayed weaker in Asia on Monday after the China HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index for March unexpectedly fell, placing demand doubts in the market about the world’s second largest crude oil importer. 

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1320	1313	1343	1350
SILVER	20.14	20.00	20.42	20.64
COPPER	2.9696	2.9186	3.0206	3.0473
CRUDE	98.39	97.32	100.39	101.32

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.15P.M	Flash Manufacturing PMI	57.1	56.6	MEDIUM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source	Markit(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar – early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Flash release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);

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Weekly Technical Analysis Report of Singapore STI and Malaysia KLCI

Weekly Technical view on STI

This was the week in which only green candle was formed by STI as there was not a major change in the trading range of STI it opened at 3071 and made a high of 3101 where gave the closing at the same level as it was for the last week candle @3073.

Long Legged Doji was formed by this week candle. As it has long upper & lower shadow with Doji as the shorter trading range in the middle

Weekly wrap of STI:

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3071.87
HIGH	3101.86
LOW	3053.59
CLOSE	3073.39
CHANGE (In Points)	0.33
% CHANGE	0.010

Macroeconomic factors:

• A good jump in the Trade Confidence Index as it’s the highest in two years at 115 i.e. 10 points. Announced by the HSBC
• Home price inflation in China slowed in Feb also as it’s the continuous second month where average for new home price rose 8.7% for the 70 major cities in China. If calculated for MOM basis price rose 0.3% for Feb.
• Statement issued by the Finance Ministry of Singapore on Tuesday said (SMEs) small medium enterprises will receive almost Q3 of sum disbursed, which calculated over 74000 employers will be receiving around S$800 Million by wage credit scheme, pay outs by March 31.
• SGX is about to revise the fee structure which will be applicable from 2nd May 2014 as to make the trading more cost effective the clearing fee would be reduced by one fifth from 0.04% to 0.325% of contract value.
• Economists forecasted 3.8% of Growth lower than expected as 3.9%

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• As the performance of the STI was in a very range bound for this week and closing for the week was as the same for the last week. STI formed the Long Legged Doji candle for this week.
• Studding Bollinger bands chart pattern it’s very clear that the market is in a very range bound conditions as its not able to maintain itself above 3100 and closed at 3073.
• Technically STI can fall for multiple support and it would be possible by the global economic factor & market sentiment to sustain above the mark of 3100.

Technical Indicators:

MACD is moving below the base and performing flat where RSI is at 44.51 CCI is also going down and is @ -52

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3040	3000	2955	3130	3170	3210

Weekly wrap of KLCI:

KLCI closed Positive this week as it makes the green candle for this week after the red weekly candle.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed in this week, as Green candle formed for this week was followed by the red candle of the last week where the open & close for this week was formed in the range of the last week candle.

Weekly Technical view on KLCI

KLCI WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	1806.15
HIGH	1821.88
LOW	1802.88
CLOSE	1820.48
CHANGE (In Points)	15.36
% CHANGE	0.850

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• 

  KLCI took the up move for this week after the two continuous down trend for two weeks 
• The 50 days EMA’ is trading at 1778 where 20 days EMA is at 1814.
• For the coming week the KLCI can take a upside movement but on the envelope channel indicator it seems consolidate in the range of 1790 to 1835

Technical Indicators:

The RSI is moving exactly above the base line at 53.92 else CCI is performing at -21

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
1805	1795	1780	1835	1850	1870

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COMEX Report of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold spiked overnight as investors awaited news on possible sanctions against Russia after Crimea voted to leave the Ukraine. The move however was short lived and the metal quickly retreated to open virtually unchanged at 1377.50/1378.50. Sideways trade throughout the day until selling interest emerged as the dollar started to recovered, taking the metal to a low of 1369.25/1370.25 prior to concluding the session at 1372.00/1373.00.

Gold had a bearish day today, making a new intraday high but then closing lower at 1372; a potential reversal warning. RSI is showing bearish divergence, having failed to make a new high on the new price high. While the longer-term uptrend still looks healthy, gold may face a test of the uptrend support which currently comes in at 1339. There should also be support from the top of the previous range, at 1355. Resistance is at the intraday high in the 1383 area.

Gold prices fell as a sharp rally in U.S. equities triggered profit-taking after bullion briefly rose in last some sessions.

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished in view of increasing political tensions and economic troubles, which benefit gold.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.81 tonnes i.e. 0.47% to 812.78 tonnes from 816.59 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved higher and later retreated alongside gold overnight to open at 21.23/21.28. It quickly touched a low of 21.20/21.25 before proceeding to an intraday high of 21.40/21.45. The metal concluded the session at 21.24/21.29.

Silver closed lower today at 21.24. The metal has struggled to break out of its sideways range. Support is at the recent low of 20.61, with resistance at Friday’s high of 21.79. We remain neutral. 

Silver dropped tracking weak gold prices after Crimea voted to join Russia and leave Ukraine on Sunday with no widespread violence

Fed will most likely to announce another $10 billion cut to its bond-buying stimulus after solid U.S. retail sales and employment data

Investors remained cautious after Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex Crimea.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.922 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.946 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.15%, or $0.004 cents.The May copper contract rose 0.94%, or 0.275 cents to settle at $2.950 a pound on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $2.912 a pound, the low from March 14 and resistance at $2.977 a pound, the high from March 13.

Results showed that nearly 97% of voters in Crimea chose to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.

Russia's lower house of parliament has stated that it will pass legislation allowing Crimea to join the nation in the "very near future."

U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington rejected the results of the referendum and warned that the U.S. was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.

Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it does not back down on annexing Crimea.

Copper has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as growing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery was flat to trade at $1,378.90 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery shed 0.15% to trade at $21.38 an ounce.

Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.

Copper prices edged lower on Monday, as concerns escalated over Ukraine after results of Sunday's referendum showed voters in Crimea voting to join Russia..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in May traded at $97.56 a barrel, down 0.07%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.01 a barrel and a high of $98.91 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.97, or 1.8%, to $106.24 a barrel on Monday, its lowest settlement price since Feb. 4.

Investors continued to monitor events in Europe, after over 90% of Crimean voters on Sunday chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea's Parliament on Monday formally asked to join the Russian Federation.

Sanctions followed as expected.

European Union foreign ministers imposed travel bans and asset freezes on 21 people they have linked to the push to have Crimea secede from Ukraine to be annexed by Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama also imposed sanctions on several Russian officials involved in the incursion of Crimea, which included freezing assets in the U.S.

Still, markets were expecting more widespread action from the West, and the response enticed investors away from oil by allaying fears the conflict could escalate and threaten energy supply from Russia.

Investors took hit-or-miss U.S. economic indicators in stride.

Data revealed earlier that U.S. industrial production rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Industrial production in January was revised to a 0.2% fall from a previously estimated 0.3% decline.

Crude price were slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday as relatively tame sanctions from the West on Russia, the world's top oil producer, over the annexation of the Crimean region of the Ukraine allayed concerns of any abrupt cutoff in supplies.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1368	1358	1388	1398
SILVER	21.13	20.89	21.64	21.91
COPPER	2.9865	2.9600	3.0300	3.0470
CRUDE	98.20	97.50	99.42	100.64

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Building Permits	0.94M	0.97M	STRONG
6.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Housing Starts	0.88M	0.92M	MEDIUM
6.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-45.9B	23.4B	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau(latest release)

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 15, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Housing Starts

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

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STI Technical Analysis Weekly Report

Weekly wrap of STI:

This was the week in which STI performance was in the down side, STI opened at 3131 and closed at 3073 by making the high of 3145.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3131.87
HIGH	3145.24
LOW	3060.51
CLOSE	3073.72
CHANGE (In Points)	-62.54
% CHANGE	-1.99%

As published yesterday in our report STI made a green candle today in the expected range and made the formation of Bulkowski's Downside Tasuki Gap.

By studying the chart formation of the STI on monthly basis STI is expected to form the Three Mountain Top Pattern, as it can be noticed that on 17^th Feb STI closed at 3069 where today (14^th March) STI gave the closing at 3073 & till today Two Mountains have been formed, where we can expect the formation of third Mountain in coming trading session.

Macroeconomic factors:

• China announced the poor batch of economy data while revised Japanese fig 2013 showed slower growth than expected & this cause the tumbled for the opening of Asian market.
• Singapore listed companies with Dec year ends continued to report growth overall in last 4Q2013, but profit slipped for full year.
• SGX announced today that it is coming with the new set of Asian currency futures to expand its suite of foreign exchange future (FX) & launching options on china A50 futures, as this will be available in the 3Q 2014.
• Singapore largest retail warehouse store Big Box is set to open its doors in the 4Q2014
• Monetary Authority of Singapore announced that Singapore is set to be among the first countries in the world to regulate virtual currency intermediaries such as the operators of bitcoin exchanges & vending machines

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI lead a 3^rd day fall and 1^st week fall after 5 weeks winning strike, STI closed below its 50 & 20 Week MA level and support of 3085 it is a bearish signal.
• STI formed a long black candlestick as per the movement of market it opens flat and made week high but didn’t able to maintain above resistance level and fell badlly and crossed its opening level and finally closed with few points of recovery near to lower level. bears are dominate bulls and index closed on lower level.
• For coming week STI can move further down if it will crossed multiple support line (yellow line on weekly graph) @ 3060 mark. On the coming week there is 2 major data lined up Merchandise Trade, incl non-oil domestic exports(NODX) on 17^th March and Q1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters GDP Forecast

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3145	3115	3095	2990	3020	3060

STI Resistance:

STI having immediate support @ 3060 level and below this level it can take support @3020-2990 will be the support zone for STI.

STI Support:

STI having immediate Resistance @3095 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3115-3145

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators MACD given its bearish signal on weekly  chart , RSI and CCI are trading in down trend mode.

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COMEX Report Of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.

Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.

SILVER

Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. 

This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.

Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.

Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.

Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's biggest consumer of the industrial metal.

Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.

Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.

Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1353	1336	1379	1388
SILVER	21.07	20.68	21.45	21.83
COPPER	2.9923	2.9586	3.0533	3.1183
CRUDE	97.16	96.33	99.21	101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.2%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	323K	334K	STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called	Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders Care	It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called	Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

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