GOLD SILVER COPER CRUDE: Overnight Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD
Gold declined overnight to open at 1234.50/1235.50 after a  budget agreement reached by U.S. lawmakers was seen as a sign  of early tapering of the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program. The  metal briefly touched a high of 1236.50/1237.50 before declining  to an intra-day low of 1224.50/1225.50 following strong U.S. retail  sales data while the dollar strengthened despite an increase in U.S.  initial jobless claims. The metal consolidated later in the afternoon  to conclude the session at 1225.00/1226.00.

Gold closed lower for the second day today, closing at 1226.  Bearish momentum, which had been trending downward since  early September, has now bounced back higher, putting the  downside into more immediate focus. Resistance is at 1277, the  61.8% retracement of the June to August uptrend. Support is at  the recent low of 1210.
Gold fell as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would reduce its huge stimulus programme after a provisional budget deal in Washington.
Imports into India have fallen sharply this year after the Indian government lifted import duty to 10 percent earlier this year.
This year has seen heavy liquidation of ETF holdings, with the SPDR’s holdings dropping by more than 500 tonnes to their lowest in nearly five years.
SILVER
Silver followed gold lower overnight to open at 19.75/19.80. It  touched a high of 19.78/19.83 and then quickly declining to a low  of 19.42/19.47 prior to concluding the session at 19.45/19.50.
Silver had a very bearish close, at 19.45. Resistance is at 20.85, the  61.8% retracement of the June to August uptrend. Support lies at  the recent low at 19.21.
The gold-silver ratio traded higher, to current 62.87, capping six  days of losses. Support is at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the  July–August range.
Silver fell after better-than-expected U.S. retail sales figures sparked market expectations for Fed to announce plans to taper its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases.
U.S. retail sales rose solidly in November, another sign of a strengthening economy after last week’s better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls and GDP data
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 44.92 tonnes to 10163.74 tonnes from 10208.66 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper settled up 1.19%  rose to the highest level in six weeks before trimming gains to trade little changed as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to further gauge the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus. Economic indicators from the US turned out mixed Thursday, with retail sales beating forecast and initial jobless claims reported worse than expectation. Anticipation for a potential QE tapering in December continued to rise. Besides, as the ECB said it might maintain easing policies for a longer period of time, the euro fell back, helping with a $rebound and weighing commodities down. LME copper prices rose initially Thursday but with the increase blocked at $7,250/mt due to selling pressure, finally ending at $7,220/mt.

The mixed batch of U.S. economic data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program next week.
Copper ended with gains as support seen from weakness in rupee and after data showed  US retail sales beating forecast.
A surplus in the global market for refined copper will widen by over 60 percent in 2014 as new mine supply outstrips reviving demand.
European Central Bank (ECB) said it might maintain easing policies for a longer period of time.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD97.41 a barrel, down 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of USD97.32 and a high of USD98.17.
The commodity shrugged off U.S. House approval Thursday of a two-year budget agreement drafted by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid indicated at a Thursday briefing that he expects the Senate to approve the package next week.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November, beating market expectations for a 0.6% increase. Core retail sales, which are stripped of automobiles, rose 0.4%, above forecasts for a 0.2% increase.
Crude oil prices eased slightly in Asia on Friday in thin trade with the focus on whether the Federal Reserve will soon taper stimulus tools.
Crude oil rose after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data boosted optimism over the health of the economy.
IEA said surging oil demand and faltering supplies mean oil prices face upside risks over the next few months.
Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said the government expected eastern tribes to reopen three oil ports over the weekend.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1216	1206	1245	1265
SILVER	19.11	18.82	19.88	20.55
COPPER	3.3115	3.3120	3.3420	3.3520
CRUDE	97.14	96.79	98.01	98.88

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
13.12.13	7.00P.M	PPI m/m	-0.2%	0.0%	STRONG
13.12.13	7.00P.M	Core PPI m/m	0.2%	0.1%	MEDIUM

PPI m/m

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 15, 2014
FF Notes	Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data because the reports are significantly correlated;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Also Called	Finished Goods PPI. Wholesale Prices;
Acro Expand	Producer Price Index (PPI);

Core PPI m/m

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 15, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which tends to mute the importance of the Core data;
Also Called	Core Finished Goods PPI;
Acro Expand	Producer Price Index (PPI);
Source	Department of Labor (latest release)