STI Technical Analysis Review & Market Forecast

  Singapore shares opened 0.5 per cent higher, with the STI up 13.82 points to 2,969.76 following a mixed session for US markets before the weekend. and ended 34.50 points or 1.17% lower to 2921.44. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2921.44 and low of 2921.44.

Investors look to individual counters after days of mass selling followed by mass buying as volatility hit global markets. The result is a mixed morning trading session in Singapore. STI ended in red.

STI Day Performance

Open: 2987.18

High: 2987.18

Low: 2921.44

Close: 2921.44

Change(Points): -34.50

% Change: -1.17%

Volume: 1268.20 M

Rise: 155

Fall: 244

Unch: 396

LOCAL BOURSE

Bank lending in July rose from June, but by a smaller extent compared to a month ago, preliminary data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) showed on Monday. This reflected weaker growth in business lending, given the big boost in construction loans in June.

Market forecast: STI is to take side ways trend. Its suport level is at 2904, if breaks this level it is expected to go up to level of 2800, it has its resistance at 3000. However, market sentiment still remains bearish due to expectation of increase in US interest rate by FED in september.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	2905
Support 2	2850
Support 3	2800
Resistance 1	3000
Resistance 2	3050
Resistance 3	3115

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• Raffles Medical Group’s, wholly owned subsidiary, Raffles SurgiCentre, has entered into a share purchase agreement with AEA International Holdings. This is for the acquisition of 375,112 shares, or about a 55% stake in International SOS (MC Holdings) (MCH).
• Grand Banks Yachts posted a $2.44 million net loss for 4Q ended June 30, compared with $801,000 in earnings a year earlier. Revenue increased 3.5 per cent to $13.68 million.
• Chasen Holdings, the specialist in relocation solutions, technical and engineering services and third-party logistics, says it recently secured contracts worth $44.5 million for FY15/16.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Chinese stocks sank again on Monday amid uncertainty over US interest rates, reviving fears of a broader global economic slowdown that has rocked the world's financial markets.
• Hong Kong stocks were almost flat on Monday, capping a volatile month in which major indexes registered their worst performance in nearly four years amid global market turmoil triggered by concerns over the Chinese economy. Hang Seng index rose 0.3 per cent, to 21,670.58, while the China Enterprises Index lost 0.1 per cent, to 9,741.41 points.
• European shares fell on Monday, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC on track for their worst month in four years, plagued by sliding Chinese stocks and the threat of a US rate increase as early as September.
• Australian shares fell one per cent on Monday, capping its worst monthly performance in seven years, amid confusion over central bank policy direction in the US and China. The index fell 8.6 per cent in August, its biggest monthly decline since late 2008.
• South Korea will consider increasing its imports of Iranian crude oil and condensate when sanctions on Tehran are lifted, a senior government official said on Monday.
• Dollar slipped in Asia on Monday on fears that China's economic malaise could drag on global growth, reversing a rally that had been fuelled by hopes for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
• Iran expects to finalise the wording for a new model for international oil contracts in the next three weeks, the oil minister said on Monday, as Tehran seeks to boost recovery from its fields with the help of foreign companies.

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Singapore Stock Market : STI Technical Analysis & Forecast

STI MARKET REVIEW:

Singapore share prices opened lower with the STI down 26.63 points or 0.92 per cent to 2859.66 and ended 13.29 points or 0.46% lower to 2873.00. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2905.29 and low of 2847.17.

Singapore in early trade rebounded after gap down open moved in positive territory due to declartion of rate cut in China but it came down due to increase of selling pressure latter in the market and closed in red.

 STI Day Performance:

Open: 2859.66

High: 2905.29

Low: 2847.17

Close: 2873.00

Change(Points): -13.29

% Change: -0.46%

Volume: 2306.40 M

Rise: 201

Fall: 240

Unch: 353

LOCAL BOURSE

Singapore's industrial output marked 6th consecutive contraction by falling more than expected in July. Factory output fell by 6.1% y-on-y last month. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, it contracted by 13.4%, output would have fallen by a smaller 4.1%.

Singapore dollar extended gains despite of weaker industrail ouput data of July, which came lower than expected,as shares on the Shanghai Composite index rallied 3.7%. It gained to 1.4000 versus the US dollar from around 1.4040, as shares on the Shanghai Composite index rallied 3.7%.

Market forecast:

STI is to takeside ways trend. It has its resistance at 2928, if it breaks this level it is expected to go up to level of 2947 and it has its support at 2800. However, market sentiment still remains bearish as they did not find China’s rate cut sufficient to control the global meltdown due to slowing growth of Chinese economy.

STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS

• Eu Yan Sang, the retailer of Traditional Chinese Medicine, has suffered lossed in the 4th quater dur to challenging macro-economic environment in Hong Kong and Malaysia.
• Retail Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have reported over the labour cruch and are set to grow again.
• Croesus Retail Trust (CRT), has announced dividends of 2.02 cents per unit for fourth quater 2015, which make toat of DPU to 8.08 which is 2.8% more from FY2014.

GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:

• Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as investor sentimen remain negative as they find fresh rate cut still not enough to stabalise the slowdown of the Chinese economy or can help to stop the donwwanrd trend of the Chinese market. China's key share indexes saw lot of fluctuation in the market today. Indexes moved higher quite a times in the earlt tarde today but they came down due to the selling pressure in market. Investors are expecting more support from the central bank and the government.
• European shares fell on Wednesday, in line with decline in global market all over the world. Due to concerns over China’s economy. Also the stock of bank and mining stocks underperforming. Pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index, fell by 2.6% inline with silimar amount of fall in the eurozone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index followed by rise of 4.3 % in previous trading session.
• Shanghai stocks closed around 1.27% lower, trading was quite volatile on Wednesday, the fall was seen even though central bank interest declared a rate cut with the aim to boost boost the flagging economy and falling shares. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed after falling 37.68 points to 2,927.29 with turnover of 461.8 billion yuan. It surged up to 4.29 per cent and was down as much as 3.85 per cent during the day.
• Australian stocks, moved up after the declartion of rate cut by China. However buoyed by China's move to cut interest rates, staged a late rally to finish higher Wednesday after trading in the red for most of the session. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed 0.69 per cent higher at 5,172.8 after falling as low as 5,051.40 in early trade.
• The dollar stood up strong against the yen and euro on Wednesday, as both the Chinese and European stock markets faced a losing ground despite China’s easing measures, where investors are still anxious about the global economic outlook.
• Crude oil futures traded positive on Wednesday after the sharp fall but still not far off 6-1/2 year low on the back of the negative Chinese market outlook which is the largest energy consumer.
• Gold slipped on Wednesday as equities bounced back after China eased monetary policy further to support a faltering economy and stock markets that had fuelled this week's global rout.
• Ringgit dropped to a 17-year low influenced by the degraded Malaysian economic outlook which is facing the dual effect of political scandal, oil price and equity market sell down.

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Singapore Stock Market: STI Weekly Technical Analysis

WEEKLY WRAP OF STI

Straits Times Index (STI) opened at 3114.56 and ended -4.40 points or 4.40% lower to 2971.01 this week. STI came off from its weekly peak of 3116.36 and low of 2948.14. 

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3114.56
HIGH	3116.36
LOW	2948.14
CLOSE	2971.01
CHANGE (In Points)	-137.15
% CHANGE	-4.40

Banks, properties and oil and gas heavy weights hit at the moment which are dragging the index lower.

This week has’nt been good for the local stock market, with the Straits Times Index (STI) dropping five days. Volume has been thin in the market. For the week, the STI lost about four points.

Singapore Exchange is proposing the introduction of an Affiliate Segregation rule, whereby the collateral of an affiliate of an SGX Derivatives Clearing (SGX-DC) member is protected if the member defaults on its own contracts.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
2948	2882	2794	3115	3215	3281

 LOCAL BOURSE

Local banks' loan growth is likely to subdued remain in coming quarters, though the lenders may benefiit from higher net interest margins with the imminent rise of interest rates, Fitch Group's BMI Research says in a report released on Friday.

Singapore is likely to remain stuck in the grip of deflation when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is released next week.

Singapore-based online retailer RedMart has raised US$26.7 million ($37.5 million) in funding from investors, including Garena, Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin and SoftBank Ventures Korea.

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Singapore SGX- STI Technical Analysis Review and Market Forecast

Market Review for STI:
Straits Times Index opened lower on Tuesday, following the retreat in equity markets in Tokyo, the US and Europe after the Shanghai stock exchange suffered its largest one-day fall of 8.5 per cent in eight years on Monday which sparked concern about global economic growth.
STI ended 32.33 points or 0.98 % lower to 3281.09. Singapore stocks traded in negative territory at midday, in line with broad declines in other Asian markets. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 3306.63 and low of 3277.13.
Singapore's central bank will probably hold off from further monetary easing at its next policy review in October.

STI Day Performance
Open	3305.63
High	3306.63
Low	3277.13
Close	3281.09
Change(Points)	-32.33
% Change	-0.98%
Volume	2254.9 M
Rise	144
Fall	278
Unch	372

Market forecast for STI:
Straits Times Index has broken the support of 3295 and is expected move sideways. There is a short term support at 3265, it is likely to rebound from this level. However if it breaks this level it might further go down.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3265	3223	3200	3312	3346	3385

Technical Indicators:
RSI is below centre line at 38.575 and CCI is at -112.49. Difference line of MACD performed at -4.310 below its signal line which performed at -3.862.

Top Gainers			Top Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
CHINA HONGCHENG	0.019	375	GREEN BUILD	0.255	-15
CHINA GREAT LAND	0.033	230	METRO	0.915	-8.5
CHINA ESSENCE	0.021	162.5	YZJ SHIPBLDG SGD	1.27	-3.42
CN15500MBECW150929	0.054	63.64	PETRA FOODS	3.25	-2.99
ZHONGXIN FRUIT	0.035	52.17

Important Factor for today:-

• European shares bounced in early trading on Tuesday after falling in the previous five sessions, with some strong company results and mergers and acquisitions news supporting the market.
• Chinese shares fell on Tuesday, as Beijing scrambled once again to prop up a stock market whose wild gyrations have heightened fears about the financial stability of the world's second biggest economy.
• Gold hovered near its weakest level since early 2010 on Tuesday, reflecting investor hesitation to bid up bullion amid growing expectations of a near-term hike in U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting later in the day where policymakers are likely to signal that a rate hike later in the year is certain as the U.S. economy strengthens.
• Oil prices fell towards four-month lows on Tuesday, dropping for a fifth straight session on persistent worries about a global supply glut, while stock market sell-offs on both sides of the Pacific also rattled investor sentiment.
• Dollar firmed on Tuesday as cautious investors covered short positions ahead of the start of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and as a continued slump in Chinese equity markets sapped appetite for riskier assets.
• Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MHB) reported a 55% drop in second quarter net profit from a year earlier, on lower income from its oil and gas structure construction unit.
• Indonesia will impose a levy on palm oil exports starting on Thursday after weeks of delay, providing as much as 4.5 trillion rupiah this year to state coffers.
• Treasury yields decline for a fifth trading day on Monday, recording the longest losing streak since April 17, as investors seek safe assets during a global stock selloff led by a sharp decline in Chinese markets.

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Singapore Stock Market: STI Technical Analysis & Forecast

Market Review for STI: Straits Times Index (STI) opened 0.3 per cent higher with STI advancing 9.12 points to 3,368.29, as gold prices stemmed a slump. STI ended 2.1 points or 0.06% lower to 3371.40. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 3375.97 and low of 3360.12.Singapore stocks inched up at midday on lack of direction and interest.

Singapore’s inflation rate remained in negative territory in June, although it inched up to -0.3 per cent from -0.4 per cent in May due to larger increases in the costs of services, food and private road transport. Singapore's annual consumer prices fell for the eighth straight month in June, an outcome that could give the central bank room to ease policy if economic growth disappoints.

STI Day Performance
Open	3371.12
High	3375.97
Low	3360.12
Close	3356.4
Change(Points)	-2.80
% Change	-0.08%
Volume	2292.0 M
Rise	187
Fall	230
Unch	390

Market forecast for STI: Straits Times Index is expected to take sideways in next rading sessions. It has its resistance level at 3387, if it breaks this level it might go further up.

STI LEVELS
Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3345	3288	3247	3387	3437	3473

Technical Indicators: RSI is slightly above center line at 53.841 and CCI is at 94.946. Difference line of MACD performed at 2.257 below its signal line which performed at -6.699.

Top Gainers			Top Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
FUXING CHINA	0.55	25	HSI25600MBEPW150730	0.082	-26.79
STARLAND	0.18	21.62	EASTERN	0.168	-25.33
RAFFLES UNITED	0.171	13.25	OCBC BK MBEPW151103	0.091	-22.22
CEFC INTL	0.28	12	HSI26400MBEPW150730	0.193	-16.09
LOTTVISION LTD1	0.405	10.96	REGAL INTL	0.22	-15.38

Important Factor for today:-

• Falling Chinese stock markets and the Greek debt crisis have raised concern about demand, while the Iranian nuclear deal could lead to higher oil exports from the Islamic Republic.
• Oil product inventories surged to their highest since at least 1999, signs that markets are struggling with a supply glut that could prompt refineries in the region to cut rates.
• US home resales rose in June to their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, a sign of pent-up demand that should buoy the housing market recovery and likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates later this year.
• European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said creditor institutions were seeking to conclude talks with Greece on a third bailout in the second half of August.
• apan's economy is expected to expand at a slower pace in the second quarter than projected a month ago in the face of weak consumer spending and exports.
• China stocks rose sharply on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite index up for the sixth consecutive session, led by blue chips, after the government reaffirmed its support for the market.
• European bonds rallied after Greece's parliament approved a second set of creditor-imposed reforms.
• Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Thursday pledged his government would never allow banks to seize the primary residences of Greeks as parliament prepared to vote on a bill that toughens rules on foreclosures.
• South Korea's economy slowed in the second quarter, with consumer spending stifled by an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) and exports failing to lift from a lengthening slump.
• Oil prices were mixed in Asia on Thursday, with WTI stuck below US$50 a barrel after a rise in US stockpiles added to concerns over a supply glut, analysts said.
• Gold's fallen out of favor with investors as the Federal Reserve prepares to increase borrowing costs, boosting the dollar.
• Ringgit fell the most in more than two weeks as a decline in commodity prices erodes the outlook for Malaysia’s export earnings.
• Oil prices fell on Wednesday after US government data showed higher crude stockpiles, adding to concerns about a global supply glut.

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Singapore Stock Market Daily Report 12th Jan

Share prices opened flat with the Straits Times Index down 1.00 points to 3,337.44.Oil fell further in Asia , with weak demand and a supply glut putting relentless pressure on prices already at their lowest in five and a half years. 

STI Day Performance

Open: 3344.89
High: 3347.76
Low: 3331.72
Close: 3344.89
Change(Points): +6.45
% Change: +.19%
Volume: 1087M
Rise: 139
Fall: 226
Unch: 838

Market forecast for STI: We may expect STI will be up in the next trading day as it may be reach level of 3373 at its major resistance.

Technical Indicators: RSI is at 54 and CCI is at 43.

STRAITS TIME  LEVELS

Support 1: 3301
Support 2: 3280
Support 3: 3260
Resistance 1: 3350
Resistance 2: 3374
Resistance 3: 33404

Important Factor for today:-

• CREDIT Suisse now believes Singapore's central bank will ease monetary policy in April, considering the weaker inflation outlook and subdued GDP (gross domestic product) growth prospects.
• Global oil prices extended their slide weighed by weakening demand in Europe and Asia, while refineries in Philadelphia and Ohio were hit hard by fires over the weekend, curtailing demand for crude in the U.S.
• A sudden new-year jump in Singapore interest rates threatens to push up mortgage costs and steepen a slide in home prices.The three-month Singapore interbank offered rate, against which most home loans are benchmarked, has risen 18 basis points to 0.6392% this year to the highest since April 2010, driven by a stronger US dollar and new liquidity requirements for Singapore banks.
• Business optimism in Singapore tumbled to near-contractionary levels in Q1 2015, amid mounting concerns over an intensification of global political headwinds and softer regional demand in the external-oriented sector.
• Mobile telecommunication services provider Edition is looking to engage in financial services business in China.
• OLAM International said  that it has agreed to sell wool broker Western Wool Marketing to Quality Wool, marking the Singapore commodities group's exit from its niche Australian wool business.

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Singapore Stock Market Weekly Technical view on STI

In this week STI opening was not good First day closed by losing 42 points. Singapore shares retreated as oil prices continued to plunge on fears of falling demand in the midst of oversupply, marking a poor start to 2015's first full week of trading. Second day STI gave a gap down opening. Singapore shares remained weak as investor appetite across the region soured after steep falls in oil prices overnight renewed concerns that global growth might be more tepid than expected. Then came into correction mode ,traders remained nervous after oil prices hit new five-and-a-half-year lows and Greek political turmoil sent the euro skidding. Last day of the week gave gap up opening with 21 points.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3368.38
HIGH	3372.34
LOW	3267.89
CLOSE	3338.44
CHANGE (In Points)	-32.15
% CHANGE	-0.96%

Market Forecast for week ahead: The trend of market is expected to be bullish for next week. STI formed hammer on the top of the chart. Currently we have seen unusual volatility in markets due to oil prices crisis and global economic tensions. Asian shares climbed for a third straight day following more advances on Wall Street, while bargain-buying helped oil recover slightly from its latest sell-off. We may see bullish really in next week trading session.

Technical Indicators: RSI is above the centre line which is supporting the uptrend for the week at 55.32 and CCI is also supportive at the level of 48.37.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3313	3280	3260	3374	3409	3440

Macroeconomic factors:

• Singapore legal sector's guiding principle is to serve the people and it must also remain open to the region and the global community if it is to build a world-class legal infrastructure.
• China has freed prices of 24 commodities and services, removing all price controls on agricultural products, among other reforms.
• Demand for higher returns in Singapore bonds from the city's swelling private banking industry has brought with it greater risks. 
• Singapore legal sector's guiding principle is to serve the people and it must also remain open to the region and the global community if it is to build a world-class legal infrastructure.
• The online classifieds joint venture is now established between Singapore Press Holdings, Norway's Schibsted Media Group and Telenor Group, and South Africa's Naspers.
• Singapore Shipping Corporation said it has managed to secure a US$16.5 million ($22 million) seven-year term loan financing facility with a leading Japanese financial institution.
• Oil prices were heading for a seventh weekly loss on Friday, with key producers showing no signs of cutting output in the face of a global supply glut. 
• China’s consumer inflation rebounded marginally to 1.5 per cent year-on-year in December, the government said Friday, as slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy keeps a lid on prices.

Sector Allocation Chart by VOLUME

Sector	Volume	Values($)	Rises	Falls	Unchanged
Properties	140,187,950	216,273,670	28	22	36
Multi-Industry	31,776,000	94,566,644	1	7	9
Construction	45,630,000	5,333,810	11	6	24
Commerce	78,111,000	37,784,848	20	16	63
Hotels/Restaurants	1,437,000	786,911	4	2	11
Transport/Storage/Communications	130,512,340	182,734,180	18	13	19
Finance	34,645,400	300,250,347	14	10	22
Manufacturing	298,795,600	139,300,552	36	54	166
Services	479,315,820	133,599,249	33	48	76
Agriculture	46,469,000	26,691,906	3	2	4
Mining	22,654,000	6,179,907	5	2	6
Electricity/Gas/Water	810,000	929,425	0	2	0
Shares in Foreign Currencies	25,442,689	109,679,942	26	9	114
Total	1,335,786,799	1,254,111,391	199	193	550

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