Comex Market Updates: Daily Technical Analysis

GOLD

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust fell 3.3 tonnes to 776.89 tonnes on Wednesday, the lowest since December 2008. The outflow was the biggest since April 30. Though Gold prices in the international markets gained Yesterday as the minutes from the Federal Reserve suggested that central bank would note raised interest rates soon.
Forecast
Gold price are expected to trade in the consolidate range.
SILVER

ETF Holdings of New York’s iShares Silver Trust SLV, fell by 35.86 tonnes stood at 10,284.40 tonnes from previous business day.
Spot silver prices rose by 0.4% in yesterday’s trade diverging from the gains in gold prices. A sharp upside was capped on account of strength in the DX.

Forecast
Silver prices are expected to trade consolidate in a range.
CRUDE
NYMEX CRUDE ended lower yesterday on profit booking after the rally a day before by ongoing violence in Libya and positive economic data in China and the United States. Prices fell after the release of the weekly Jobs numbers from the US which increased to 326,000, higher than markets estimates of 310,000. Along with this some selling pressure was also seen in the market. WTI crude fell 0.3% to 103.75 barrel as data came from US on housing and jobs too came weaker than expected. ICE Brent also pulled back some gains close to $110.40 barrel.

Overall though broad bullishness remains in the US crude which took strong upward momentum out of the better stocks data recently. As also reported earlier, DoE said crude stockpiles fell 7.2 million barrels to 391.3 million for the week ended May 16.
Overall a broad bullishness is seen in the US crude which took strong upward momentum. According to the DOE crude stockpiles fell 7.2 M barrels to 391.3 M for the week ended May 16.
There are some positive signs for demand in gasoline consumption as the demand in market over the past four weeks increased to 8.94 MBPD, its highest level since November and up 5.3% on a YoY comparison. So refiners churn more oil for producing gasoline.
Forecast
Crude oil prices could trade sideways.
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1290	1280	1298	1310
SILVER	19.00	18.50	20.00	20.50
CRUDE	103	102.50	104	104.50

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

• US Unemployment Claims rose to 326,000 for w/e on 16th Apr’14.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5-mark in current month.
• SPDR Gold holdings fell 3.3 tonnes to 776.89 tonnes on Wednesday.
• UK’s Second Estimate GDP unchanged at 0.8 percent in Q1 of 2014.

Data Update for 23th May 2014

Time	Currency	Particular	Actual	Forecast	Previous
7:30am	CNY	CB Leading Index m/m	0.90%		1.10%
11:30am	EUR	German Final GDP q/q		0.80%	0.80%
1:30pm	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate		111	111.2
	EUR	Italian Retail Sales m/m		0.30%	-0.20%
Day 2	EUR	European Parliamentary Elections
6:00pm	CAD	Core CPI m/m		0.20%	0.30%
	CAD	CPI m/m		0.30%	0.60%
6:30pm	EUR	Belgian NBB Business Climate		-4.7	-4.6
7:30pm	USD	New Home Sales		426K	384K

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Singapore Market: STI Technical Analysis Report

Market Review for STI:
STI performed well today as opened up by 22 points @3245 and buyers made the market bullish, the high of 3261.32 was marked on the chart and today’s closing was @3259.09. 

STI Day Performance
Open	3245.99
High	3261.32
Low	3244.08
Close	3259.09
Change(Points)	36.60
% Change	1.14
Volume	1711.3M
Rise	235
Fall	157
Unch	689

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a long Green candle for the day and broke the resistance of 3250 some up move is expected in the coming session as the buyers are abrasive to take the market for the new levels.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @57.53, where CCI @27.71

STI LEVELS
Support 1	3250
Support 2	3240
Support 3	3225
Resistance 1	3270
Resistance 2	3280
Resistance 3	3299

Important Factor for today:-

• CNMC attained a net profit of US$1.26 million (S$1.58 million) with a large jump in gold production, recovered a loss of US$0.6 million the year before.
• The share prices of Hotel Properties Limited (HPL) rises from S$3.50 to S$4 a share .This is because of 68 Holdings Pte Ltd company who agreed to buy 17.1 million shares @ S$4 each.
• United Overseas Bank Limited’s (UOB) awarded with a rating of “BBB” by Fitch rating Agency.
• Profit for CDW Holding was announced yesterday with a sharp fall of 50.4% where a year ago it was 1.41 million major reason that pull the profit was higher material cost so the earning per share (EPS) came @0.30 US cent and Revenue grew 2% to US$34.75 million

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
ComfortDelGro	2.21	4.25	ThaiBev	0.595	-0.83
Jardine C&C	45.7	3.91	StarHub	4.11	-0.72
CapitaLand	3.13	2.96	HongkongLand USD	6.93	0.14
Global Logistic	2.82	2.92	CityDev	10.8	0.19
JMH 400 USD	61.42	2.37	SIA	10.24	0.39

Market Review for KLCI:
Today KLCI opened at 1874.19 almost 8 points up from the previous closing and took a Upside, made a high of 1879.64. buyers were fully active in todays session and took the KLCI to a new level.

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1874.19
High	1879.64
Low	1873.35
Close	1879.02
Change(Points)	13.12
% Change	0.70
Volume	1826.8M
Rise	521
Fall	283
Unch	1358

Market forecast for KLCI:
As today KLCI had broken the major resistance of 1870 and set a new level on the chart as today’s session had marked a major gap up opening and now there is a possibility that the market can took some correction to cover the gap where all the technical are showing bullish sign.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1870
Support 2	1860
Support 3	1850
Resistance 1	1890
Resistance 2	1900
Resistance 3	1905

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Vicom: Company Profile & Business Model

VICOM Ltd is Singapore's leading provider in technical testing and inspection services. A pioneer in vehicle inspection, The VICOM Group is a subsidiary of ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited, the world's 2nd largest transport company. It comprises VICOM and JIC Inspection Centres and SETSCO Services. These centres are all located at convenient locations throughout Singapore.

Recognised for our service quality and efficient business practices, our expertise has also extended abroad to countries in Asia and the Middle East. As early as 1985, we were consultant/adviser to OMACO of Saudi Arabia and helped set up inspection centres there. In 1995, we offered consultancy services to MCM (Malaysia) and also Bangladesh. In 2003, we were jointly involved with ATB Services in the vehicle inspection project for Land Transport Department of Brunei.

Corporate Development

Vicom is performing in various business segment and had a vast business expansion plans like:-

• Chemicals
• Calibration & Measurement
• Consumer Goods
• Construction
• Electrical & Electronics
• Environment
• Food & Biology
• Industrial & Manufacturing
• Medical & Pharmaceutical
• Oil & Gas, Petrochemical

Profit & Loss	Q1 FY 2014	Q1 FY 2013	Growth %
Revenue	26,897	26,03	3.31%
Profit Before Tax	9,669	9,144	5.74%
Profit Attributable To Shareholders	8,013	7,463	7.37%

As compare to the other counter in the sector the Tritech is giving good return than any other counter on annual term and is at a right price to enter in the counter.

Reading into Vicom Annual Report

Total Equity increased by $8.1 million to $138.2 million as at 31 March 2014 due mainly to profits generated from operations, partially offset by dividend payment to non controlling interests.

Total Assets increased by $6.1 million to $164.5 million as at 31 March 2014 due to the increase in Current Assets by $6.2 million. Total Liabilities decreased by $2.0 million to $26.3 million as at 31 March 2014 due mainly to the payment of variable bonus in March 2014

The net cash inflow in the quarter was $6.4 million.

Fundamentals Analysis

Fundamentals	Values
EPS (S$)	0.321
PE	18.37
Dividend (S$)	0.16
Dividend Yield(%)	2.72
NAV(SGD)	1.55
Market Cap	522.82
Issued & Paid-up Shares	88,614,000
Price / NAV	3.08

Revenue

The Group’s total revenue was $26.9 million for 1Q14 was $0.9 million or 3.3% higher than 1Q13, contributed by higher business volume.

Operating Expenses

The Group’s operating expenses were of $17.4 million for 1Q14 was $0.4 million or 2.3% higher than 1Q13 due mainly to the higher expenses needed to generate the increased revenue.

Operating Profit

Consequently, the Group’s operating profit of $9.5 million for 1Q14 was $0.5 million or 5.2% higher than 1Q13. The Group’s profit before tax of $9.7 million for 1Q14 was $0.5 million or 5.7% higher than 1Q13.

The Group’s Profit attributable to Shareholders of the Company of $8.0 million for 1Q14 was $0.6 million or 7.4% higher than 1Q13

As per the return on the investment and security, Vicom is a good counter to hold for 6 or 12 months to 18 months.

Comparison of Vicom & transport sector.

Return	PE	Rolling PE	Price / NAV	Dividend Yield (%)
Vicom	18.378	18.030	3.8060	2.725
TRANSPORT Sector	24.968	25.212	1.5540	3.033

Technical Analysis

Currently the counter is trading in a very range bound phase and had bounded itself into very close Support of 5.8 and Resistance of 5.9 else the tec. Indicator RSI is above the centre line @76.90, is about to go in overbought condition. CCI is @67.17. we can expect the counter to take a up move and break the resistance in coming sessions.

#Bullish Consolidate

After having a detail study on the Vicom the counter is in consolidate up side phase. But overall the counter (Technically & Fundamentally) is in a bullish trend and is good to hold for a long term.

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Singapore Stock Market Technical Analysis View

Market Review for STI:
STI made a gap up at 3249.13 in the today’s session, a jump of almost 8 points was noticed at the time of opening. Later it came down and made a low of 3242.39 and closed near to low @ 3245.56.

STI Day Performance
Open	3249.13
High	3250.66
Low	3242.39
Close	3245.56
Change(Points)	3.96
% Change	0.12%
Volume	1242M
Rise	221
Fall	178
Unch	678

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a red candle for the day. Today it was third continuous day for STI to form Red candle in a line. As it is standing on the major support of 3240. A little consolidation is expected in tomorrow’s session.
Technical indicators:
RSI is just above the centre line the centre line @56.62 Where CCI is @ 19.37

STI LEVELS
Support 1	3235
Support 2	3225
Support 3	3210
Resistance 1	3255
Resistance 2	3265
Resistance 3	3280

Important Factor for today:-

• Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for Singapore increased to 51.1 in April where in March it was 50.8 was in March.
• Singapore Iron Ore Week starts from today to 8th May 2014.
• Singapore Exchange announced that the total traded value of Securities fell from 17% to 25.8 Billion in April where the Commodity trading and the Clearing activity grew on YOY basis.
• Q4 net Profit of SIAEC engineering fall to 1.1% to S$65.2 million.
• Acquisition of 89.18% Stake was made in Natural Gas Business in China from China Print Power, valued to HK$ 515.4 Million.
• Cash earning of S$15.3 million for Q4 ended 31 March 2014 published by CitySpring

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
Genting Sing	1.345	2.67	SPH	4.14	-1.43
ThaiBev	0.61	1.67	Golden Agri-Res	0.61	-0.81
CityDev	10.89	1.02	HongkongLand USD	6.76	-0.59
UOB	21.61	0.75	Jardine C&C	44.77	-0.4
HPH Trust USD	0.68	0.74	Global Logistic	2.78	-0.36

Market Review for KLCI:
KLCI opened flat today @1860.35 and made a high of 1864.23 where it closed at the same of opening point of 1860.43, low of the day was 1856.85

KLCI Day Performance
Open	1860.35
High	1864.23
Low	1856.85
Close	1860.43
Change(Points)	-0.11
% Change	-0.01
Volume	1467.4M
Rise	460
Fall	273
Unch	1428

Market forecast for KLCI:
A long green Doji candle was formed for the day with a very small body and a long upper and lower shadow for the day. we expect a little correction for tomorrow’s trading session.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1	1850
Support 2	1840
Support 3	1825
Resistance 1	1870
Resistance 2	1880
Resistance 3	1895

Technical indicators:
RSI is just above the centre line @ 54.20 where the CCI is performing at 26.22

Top Gainers			Top Loosers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
HLBANK	13.84	0.73	BAT	61.2	-1.29
MAXIS	6.97	0.72	ASTRO	3.27	-1.21
FGV	4.54	0.44	PETGAS	23.36	-0.68
SIME	9.48	0.42	PCHEM	6.76	-0.59
IOIPG	2.66	0.38	HLFG	15.02	-0.53

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