Monday, 23 June 2014

FOREX Updates for Next week

The U.S. currency had the biggest weekly decline against the euro in two months as the Fed announced June 18 it will reduce monthly bond-buying while holding its interest-rate target at virtually zero.
 The pound rose for a third week as traders had the most bullish futures wagers since 2007. A gauge of currencies volatility increased from a record low. EUR/USD gains were enabled as the European Commission asserted that the Eurozone’s economic outlook is improving. The Brussels-based institution now sees the Eurozone’s economy expanding by 1.2 per cent this year, up slightly from the 1.1 per cent previously forecast. They also see the unemployment rate in the currency bloc edging to 12 per cent.
The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 1.35 level as support. That being the case, it looks as we continue to bounce around in this general vicinity, using the 200 pips as the range for the market right now. Long-term traders will probably avoid this market, but short-term traders will probably find it very profitable as it looks very well contained and we have very obvious support and resistance levels. However, if we do get above the 1.37 level, we feel that the market will finally go back towards a 1.40 handle. A move below the 1.35 level since this market down to the 1.33 handle.
The USD/JPY ended the week at the 102 range while traders closely monitor the conflict in Iran moving to safe havens while the geopolitical situation boils over. 
In overseas trading overnight, the dollar briefly rose to around ¥102 thanks to a rise in U.S. long-term interest rates following favorable economic data, including the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing index for June. The dollar was later stuck in a narrow range around ¥101.85.
The USD/JPY pair went back and forth over the course of the week, as continue to meander in a fairly tight consolidation area. It’s a bit difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market, and until it break well above the 103 level, we do not see much of a trade to the long side. As far selling is concerned, we think that there is simply far too much support below to even consider it at this point in time. Ultimately, this market breaks out to the upside, but it might take a while.
With the British Pound currently trading close to a five-year high against the US Dollar, news of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting can only help enhance the Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate relationship further. 
Thursday has seen the UK retail sales report fall slightly short of predictions; however it’s still lent the Pound some underlying support. The Pound is displaying stability against the US Dollar as the US Federal Reserve is currently showing no intention of increasing interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee also dropped its initial forecast of a long term interest rate from 4-3.75%.
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but closed above the 1.70 handle, a significant move to the upside. That was a pretty strong barrier for us, and we believe that it opens the way to the 1.75 level as a target. It will probably take a bit of time, but we do believe that eventually that level gets hit. If we pull back from here, we would fully anticipate buyers stepping into the market and lifting the British pound yet again.
The AUD/USD ended the week close to the 94 mark at 0.9383 staying strong after positive data and promises from the Chinese Premier that China will meet its growth expectations regardless of what the government needs to do. 
The currency soared after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The ‘Aussie’ fell from its highest level in two months against the US Dollar after peaking at 94.33, the highest level witnessed since April 10th. The Australian dollar has more than shaken off a slight dovish shift by the Reserve Bank of Australia and has not spent much time beneath 94 cents since the FOMC meeting.  It seems likely the market would at some stage like to inquire as to what kind of supply is above 94.4 cents.
The Australian Dollar is now expected to fall against the US Dollar at a quickening pace as the US economy improves and commodity prices fall. The AUD/USD pair went back and forth over the course of the week forming a neutral candle. This neutral candle is still within the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby not really telling us much other than the pressure to breakout to the upside continues. Because of this, we believe that ultimately the Australian dollar does again, but the market has some work to do to make that happen. If we can get a move above the 0.95 handle, we believe that this market goes to the parity level given enough time.
Currency Data from 23 – 27 june
Date Time Currency Impact Particular Forecast Previous
Mon Jun 23 7:15am CNY HIGH HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.7 49.4

11:30am JPY HIGH BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

2:30pm EUR HIGH French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.6

1:00pm EUR HIGH German Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.7 52.3

7:30pm USD HIGH Existing Home Sales 4.74M 4.65M
Tue Jun 24 2:00pm GBP HIGH Inflation Report Hearings

7:30pm USD HIGH CB Consumer Confidence 83.6 83

USD HIGH New Home Sales 442K 433K
Wed Jun 25 6:00pm USD HIGH Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.003 0.003
Thu Jun 26 3:00pm GBP HIGH BOE Gov Carney Speaks

6:00pm USD HIGH Unemployment Claims 314K 312K
Fri Jun 27 4:15am NZD HIGH Trade Balance 250M 534M

All Day EUR HIGH German Prelim CPI m/m 0.002 -0.001

2:00pm GBP HIGH Current Account -17.1B -22.4B


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