Friday, 21 February 2014

COMEX Report Of Daily Technical Analysis

Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1311.50/1312.50 following soft data out of China and France. The metal climbed to a high of 1317.50/1318.50 before dipping to a low of 1311.00/1312.00 as the dollar stabilized and U.S. equities rose following mixed U.S. economic data that showed a small drop in initial jobless claims. A weak Philly Fed number brought in fresh interest, leading the metal to a close of 1316.50/1317.50.
Gold has had a nice bounce higher today from 1308 to 1323. The overall price action appears to be a bullish wedge. The move starting February from 1239 to 1332 was very impulsive in nature; the pull back to 1308 corrective. Risk is for another run to the topside with a break of 1332 targeting last major high seen October 28th at 1361. Only a break of 1308 would yield a deeper correction to 1297 (23.6% of the 1185 to 1332 calendar year up move).
Gold slipped as the dollar firmed after minutes from a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting indicated support for continued tapering of its stimulus
Prices benefited after data showed factory activity in China fell to a seven-month low and a closely watched gauge of U.S. manufacturing sector fell sharply.
India’s plan to keep tax on gold imports at current levels could underpin sentiment in the physical market as it will lead to more smuggling.
Silver retreated overnight to open at the session low of 21.60/21.65. Shortly after open, it posted a high of 21.76/21.81 before closing the day at 21.65/21.70.
Silver moved back higher today to the upper end of our one month range. The metal seems to have found support at the 23.6% Fibo at 21.28. Resistance is seen at 21.98, which is lastweek’s high and the 50% retracement level of the last down leg from 25.09 to 18.51. While the metal holds above 21.28 we see risk of another leg higher to the 61.8% retracement level at 22.70.
The gold-silver ratio remains heavy at current 60.63. The drop this month from 65.10 to 60.35 overhangs the market. Support is seen at 60.23 from the December 31st low. The 60.17 level represents the key 61.8% Fibo of our five-month up move from 57.12 to 65.10. Despite the technical support we see the risk of another leg lower to 59.00. Only a move back above 61.55 would shake the bearish bias.
Silver dropped as after investors continued to sell for profits, shrugging off a soft regional U.S. output report as weather-related setback that won’t alter monetary policy.
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended February 8 rose to 2.981 million from 2.944 million in the preceding week.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.68% i.e. 68.81 tonnes to 10081.70 tonnes from 10150.51 tonnes.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between $3.257 a pound and $3.288 a pound.
Copper prices last traded at $3.268 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.55%. The March copper contract ended Wednesday’s session unchanged to settle at $3.285 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.253 a pound, the low from February 18 and resistance at USD3.302 a pound, the high from February 19.
Data released earlier showed that China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.3 in February from a final reading of 49.5 in January, remaining below the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction for a second month.
Copper traders consider shifts in the HSBC PMI an indicator of China’s copper demand, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Meanwhile, copper traders looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy and second-biggest consumer of the industrial metal.
Copper futures declined on Thursday, after data showed that manufacturing activity in China fell to a seven-month low in February, further suggesting that the world’s second-largest economy may be facing a slowdown.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.79 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.08%.
On Thursday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $102.80 a barrel and a high of $102.95 a barrel to settle at $102.84 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 13, and resistance at $103.28 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index deteriorated to minus 6.3 in February from January’s reading of 9.4. Analysts had expected the index to inch down to 8.0 in February.
The soft numbers fueled concerns that U.S. recovery still faces headwinds made worse by rough winter weather, and the country may demand less fuel and energy going forward than previously anticipated.
Also on Thursday, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 3,000 to 336,000, slightly below expectations for a decline of 4,000.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in January, in line with forecasts. Consumer prices were 0.1% higher from a month earlier, also matching forecasts.
Core consumer prices, which are stripped of volatile food and energy components, were also up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis and 0.1% from the previous month.
Weekly supply data also watered down prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 973,000 barrels last week, less than market expectations for a gain of 2.01 million barrels.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 309,000 barrels, confounding expectations for a decline of 538,000 barrels.
Meanwhile inventories of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 339,000 million barrels, far less than market calls for a loss of 1.89 million.
Nymex crude prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during morning Asian trade on Friday on falling demand and higher U.S. supplies.
Technical Levels
Global Economic Data
Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
Source National Association of Realtors(latest release)
Measures Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called Home Resales;
Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)


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