Tuesday, 10 December 2013

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE: Overnight Commodity Technical Outlook Today

Gold edged marginally higher overnight to open at 1231.50/1232.50. It briefly touched a low of 1230.50/1231.50 before climbing up to a high of 1238.00/1239.00 on dollar weakness as uncertainty prevails over the Fed’s tapering of its monthly bond-buying program. Thereafter, the metal came under selling pressure to close the session at 1234.00/1235.00. 
Gold closed higher today at 1235 for the second session in a row. Resistance is at 1240, which is the 76.4% retracement of the July-August range, then at 1258, the high from the consolidation range of the past few weeks. Support is at the major low of 1180. The most recent price action has caused RSI to bounce off the 30 line (sometimes considered to be the Oversold Indicator), to current 42 level. However true support for RSI is down at 19.74 from previous lows. The MACD has generated a buy signal; however as the overall trend remains bearish, we prefer to see a break of the 1258 resistance to shift to a neutral view.
Gold gained as rally spurred by a dollar drop and technical support that prompted funds to establish new positions.
James Bullard offered his voice to a growing contingent at the central bank that has argued for reducing the Fed’s bond buying at next week’s gathering.
The stimulus has supported gold prices as it boosts the metal’s inflation-hedge appeal.
 Technical Levels
GOLD 1228 121 1243 1257
SILVER 19.43 19.23 19.86 20.09
COPPER 3.2715 3.2475 3.3075 3.3195
CRUDE 96.97 96.60 97.84 98.31
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
Silver moved marginally higher overnight to open at 19.59/19.64, which was also the low of the day. It then followed gold to a high of 19.80/19.85 prior to concluding the session at 19.69/19.74.
 Silver closed higher at 19.74, which also triggered a buy signal in MACD. RSI has bounced higher off its recent 25.71 low but remains in bearish territory at 43.90. Support is at the major low of 18.23. Resistance is at the top of the range from the past six sessions, at 20.00. As the trend remains bearish, we will need to see a clear breach of resistance to shift to neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 62.31. It has had several consecutive down days, dropping from recent highs in the 64.13 area, which should now provide resistance. Support is close by at 62.28, the 50% retracement of the August range.
Silver gained after bottom fishers snapped up nicely-priced positions and took back losses stemming from Friday’s better-than-expected U.S. employment data
The U.S. central bank has had considerable success in persuading investors that tapering does not amount to tightening.
Markets are watching data closely to try to figure out how soon the Fed could begin cutting its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.248 a pound during European morning trade, little changed on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.231 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.254 a pound.
The March contract settled 0.59% higher on Friday to end at USD3.248 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.217 a pound, the low from December 6 and resistance at USD3.260 a pound, the high from December 6.
According to China's General Administration of Customs, inbound copper shipments totaled 435,613 metric tons in November, down 4.8% from October.
Copper traders now looked ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later in the week, including reports on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales.
Copper futures swung between small gains and losses on Monday, after data showed copper imports from top consumer China declined last month.
Copper swung between small gains and losses after data showed copper imports from top consumer China declined last month.
Inbound copper shipments totaled 435,613 metric tons in November, down 4.8% from October – China’s General Administration of Customs,
Data showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 3% in November, in line with expectations and slowing from 3.2% in October.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD97.45, up 0.11%, after hitting an overnight session low of USD97.32 and a high of USD97.96.
On Friday, the Department of Labor reported that the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November, beating expectations for a 180,000 increase and up from a downwardly revised 200,000 rise the previous month.
In the private sector, 196,000 jobs were added last month, compared to expectations for a 180,000 rise, after an increase of 214,000 in October.
The report also said the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.0% in November from 7.3% in October, beating expectations for a downtick to 7.2%.
Crude oil prices rose in Asia on Tuesday on continued expectations for rebounding global growth.
Crude oil dropped undermined by signs of weaker European demand despite upbeat economic data from the United States and China.
Crude imports by China, reached 23.56 million tonnes in November, or 5.73 million bpd, up 19.1 percent from the previous month on a daily basis.
Weather-related oil production losses also provided some price support.
Global Economic Data
8.30P.M JOLTS Job Openings 3.91M 3.96M MEDIUM
8.30P.M Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3% LOW
JOLTS Job Openings
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Jan 17, 2014
FF Notes It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Wholesale Inventories m/m
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Jan 10, 2014
Why Traders
It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods once they have depleted inventories;


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